预测市场内幕
预测市场内幕
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预测市场频频曝出内幕,本话题聚焦预测市场中的机制争议、信息不对称与治理挑战,欢迎大家关注讨论。
KK.aWSB
KK.aWSB
Crypto Newbie
21m ago
New York in 1929, was experiencing the most frenzied period of the American stock market. Joseph Kennedy, the father of the future President John F. Kennedy. He was not only a politician but also a top Wall Street trader. One morning, he went to a corner of Wall Street to have his shoes shined. A teenage boy was shining his shoes. The boy chatted excitedly as he diligently polished the shoes. But he didn't talk about the weather or baseball, he started talking about stocks. The boy's eyes lit up as he told Kennedy: "Sir, you should buy oil stocks!" "I have insider information, this stock is about to take off!" He even gave a few seemingly professional analyses of the market trends. After listening, Kennedy smiled and gave the boy a generous tip. He didn't buy oil stocks. Instead, as soon as he returned to his office, he gave his broker instructions: "Sell all the stocks I hold." "Not a single one left, liquidate everything." The broker was stunned and asked him why. Kennedy coldly replied: "When even a shoeshine boy is recommending stocks to me," "It means everyone who wants to buy stocks has already bought them." "There's no new money left to buy." A few days later. The Great Crash of 1929 erupted. Countless people lost everything, while Kennedy emerged unscathed. 🖊️This is the famous "Shoeshine Boy Theory." At the end of a bull market, extreme frenzy often accompanies it. When market aunties, taxi drivers, and even those without risk tolerance are talking about getting rich quick, this is usually not an opportunity, but a death knell. Investment Practice: At the peak of Meme coin or a bull market, when you see everyone on social media posting their profits and recommending trades, remember Kennedy's shoes. The most rational course of action at this time is to avoid FOMO. This is the perfect time to find an exit point.
Chris Lee
Chris Lee
Crypto Newbie
1h ago
Merkle3s Weekly Update 📊 02/04 1️⃣ Macroeconomics and Risk Appetite ➡️ From the risk of a government shutdown to the nomination of a Fed candidate, #BTC has suffered two consecutive shocks: first, the release of panic, then the amplification of the Fed nomination leading to a second round of suppression. ➡️ Precious metals also experienced rare two-way fluctuations: first rising due to panic, then quickly retreating under the narrative of a stronger dollar. ➡️ The rebound in inflation data has become a potential time bomb; some believe the market may still face a deeper decline or a longer period of sideways consolidation. 2️⃣ Fund Flows and ETF Direction ➡️ After the release of panic, $BTC saw a round of fund inflows, but $ETH continued to see outflows. ➡️ The fund structure shows a "safe haven before selection" characteristic, with a short-term bias towards defense rather than a full return to risk. 3️⃣ On-Chain Hot Topics and Narrative Shift ➡️ On-chain funds have shown a clear migration: after the controversy between CZ and OKX, #BNB and Chinese #Memes... Collective Cooling Down ➡️ #Base absorbed some of the #BNB spillover funds, mainly flowing into #ClawdBot/#MoltBot/#OpenClaw related #AI narratives, and driving up the AI-related coin $CLANKER, thus reaping a wave of AI hype. 4️⃣ OpenClaw Ecosystem Short-Term Explosion and Pullback ➡️ The OpenClaw Agent-dedicated forum #Moltbook experienced a surge in popularity, pushing $MOLT's market capitalization past $100 million. ➡️ Subsequently, a market crash led to a "rapid pullback in the hype," while Moltbook's outage and exposure of spam messages exacerbated negative sentiment and a loss of trust.