Expand “The next blockbuster product might initially look like a toy.” Four years ago, when @DaffyGiving was founded, it might have seemed like a toy to established institutions. Today, Daffy has grown to surpass over 99% of donor-advised funds (DAFs) in the US. 🎉 Even surpassing established institutions like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Raymond James. 🤯

Expand That's fucking brutal! Ethereum's volatility these past few days is practically indistinguishable from altcoins. Last night it plummeted to around $2100, a 50% drop in just a few days! Bitcoin almost broke the $70,000 mark! From its high to its current price, Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to around $72,000, a drop of $50,000 per coin, or about 350,000 RMB per coin. Ethereum, on the other hand, fell from around $5,000 to around $2,100, a drop of about $3,000 per coin, more than 100%. This shakeout has been incredibly brutal, wiping out many large investors, including some institutions and market makers. Nothing lasts forever, and nothing lasts forever either. Look for opportunities to gradually build positions. Remember, never touch altcoins; altcoins have no bottom.

Expand ETFs See Massive Inflows The US spot Bitcoin ETF absorbed $561.8 million in Bitcoin yesterday. Institutional investors are buying on dips.

Expand 🔔“Big Short” Michael Burry: Bitcoin Has Plunged 40%, Further Declines Could Have “Catastrophic Consequences” for Bitcoin Treasurys and Tokenized Metals Market Mars Finance reported on February 4th that renowned American “big short” Michael Burry warned that Bitcoin has plunged 40%, and further declines could cause lasting damage to companies that have accumulated large amounts of the asset over the past year. He believes Bitcoin has proven to be a purely speculative asset, failing to serve as a hedging tool like precious metals. In an article published on Monday, Burry pointed out that if Bitcoin falls another 10%, the most aggressive Bitcoin treasury firm, Strategy, will suffer billions of dollars in losses and will essentially be unable to access capital markets. He warned that the Bitcoin decline could trigger “catastrophic consequences,” including a spillover effect to broader markets and a “collateral death spiral” in tokenized metals futures. This warning came as Bitcoin continued its plunge on Tuesday, briefly falling below $73,000, erasing all gains since Trump's re-election in November 2024. Since hitting an all-time high in early October, the cryptocurrency has fallen by more than 40%. Burry adds that the emergence of spot ETFs has only exacerbated the speculative nature of Bitcoin, while also increasing the token's correlation with the stock market. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has recently approached 0.50. Theoretically, when losing positions begin to grow, liquidations should be aggressively initiated. Since late November, Bitcoin ETFs have been setting some of the largest single-day outflow records, three of which occurred in the last 10 days of January. This trend suggests that institutional investor confidence in Bitcoin is waning, and ETFs, originally seen as a tool to expand Bitcoin adoption, may instead be accelerating sell-offs during market downturns. Burry points out that the decline in cryptocurrencies is partly responsible for the recent collapse in gold and silver, as corporate Treasurers and speculators need to mitigate risk by selling profitable positions in tokenized gold and silver futures. If Bitcoin falls to $50,000, miners will go bankrupt, and "tokenized metal futures will collapse into a black hole with no buyers."

Expand 🔔Canada's investment regulator CIRO launches new digital asset custody framework, adopting a tiered, risk-based regulatory model According to Mars Finance, Canada's investment regulator CIRO recently released a new digital asset custody framework aimed at strengthening the regulation of crypto asset custody methods and improving investor protection. The framework draws on lessons learned from past events such as the collapse of QuadrigaCX, focusing on preventing hacking, fraud, weak corporate governance, and bankruptcy risks. According to the guidelines, the new framework establishes a tiered, risk-based custody structure, allowing for compliance innovation while imposing differentiated regulatory requirements on different custody models. CIRO stated that as custody methods and cybersecurity risks continue to evolve, the regulator will continuously update the framework to adapt to new industry developments.

Expand Something big is about to happen. Stay tuned! 🐙🌋 Reliability is non-negotiable for businesses and organizations.

Expand 🔔Nevada Gaming Regulatory Commission Accuses Coinbase of Offering Unlicensed Sports Betting According to a report by Cointelegraph, the Nevada Gaming Regulatory Commission has filed documents in the First Judicial District Court of Nevada accusing Coinbase Financial Markets of offering unlicensed sports betting. The Commission subsequently requested a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction to prohibit Coinbase from “operating a derivatives exchange and prediction market related to sports betting.” Nevada Gaming Regulatory Commission Chairman Mike Dreitzer stated in a statement, “The Commission is committed to its obligation to operate a thriving gaming industry and protect the citizens of Nevada. Yesterday’s action reaffirms that obligation.” Less than a week ago, Coinbase announced a partnership with Kalshi, launching prediction markets in all 50 states. While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates the Kalshi platform at the federal level, the platform may still face legal action from state regulators, including those in Nevada.

Expand One number can explain Bitcoin's price: That number is -0.65. This is Bitcoin's Z-score. In simple terms if you're not a statistician: The Z-score tells you how much the price deviates from its normal range. • Z = 0 → Price is normal • Z > 0 → Price is too high • Z < 0 → Price is too low It doesn't predict speculation, but rather measures the tension in the price. Here's the significance of -0.65: At this point after each previous halving, Bitcoin's price was above the trend level: 2012: +1.02 2016: +1.32 2020: +0.48 Today: -0.65 This has never happened before. Never in the last 15 years. So what does the data tell us next? I ran the full dataset: 5,681 daily observations. Every crash. Every bubble. Every macroeconomic system. The relationship between the Z-score and future prices is not weak. Correlation with future 18-month returns: -0.745 Variance explained by this single variable: approximately 56% This means that the degree of price overexpansion explains subsequent movements better than interest rates, CPI, market narratives, or sentiment. From Z ≤ -0.6 (where we are now): • 12-month win rate: 100% • Negative returns: 0 • Worst case: +47% • Median return: +181% From Z ≥ +1.0: • Win rate: 44% • Maximum drawdown: -73% This is not a subjective opinion. This is asymmetry. So why doesn't the price "feel" bullish? Because Bitcoin pricing is no longer like trading. It's being used. Bitcoin is now traded 24/7, settled instantly, and can be used as collateral. Funds can flow through Bitcoin without anyone pressing a buy button on an exchange. This temporarily suppresses prices. But it doesn't weaken demand. The market calls this "lack of interest." Mathematically, it's called a classification error. Meanwhile, supply has mathematically tightened permanently. The 2024 issuance halving. ETFs absorb hundreds of Bitcoins daily off-exchange. Institutions are quietly accumulating. Selling does occur, but Bitcoin is transferring from short-term holders to long-term holders' balance sheets at approximately a 36% discount to its network value. This is not distribution. This is a change of ownership. Mean reversion doesn't need a catalyst. Discrepancy half-life: Approximately 133 days. This means: • Approximately 50% of the gaps will be closed within about 4 months. • Approximately 75% of the gaps will be closed within about 8 months. • Approximately 90% of the gaps will be closed within about 12 months. No need for optimism. No explanation needed. Time will tell. This is not a trade. This is a position. It's not a bet on a "Bitcoin surge." It's a bet that mathematics still holds true in this cycle. Because when a highly stretched system recovers quickly...

Expand Tria: Tria simplifies Tria simplifies simplifies simplifies simplifies simplifies Tria positions itself as a full-stack on-chain new bank and payment network, focusing on practical applications, institutional-scale, and cross-chain execution, rather than speculative narratives. Prior to TGE, Tria had already demonstrated significant growth momentum: • Transaction volume exceeding $60 million • Revenue exceeding $1.9 million within three months • Transaction volume reaching $20 million in 90 days; daily transaction volume reaching $1.12 million • Over 50,000 global users and over 5,500 partners • Visa cards are enabled at over 130 million merchants in more than 150 countries and regions • Daily credit limit of up to $500 million, supporting 23 currencies • Over 1 million global community users At the infrastructure level, Tria is deeply integrated with mainstream ecosystems such as Polygon AggLayer, Arbitrum, Injective, BitLayer, Aethir, 0G, Merlin, Morph, and IOPN, and has been deployed in actual operations by AI teams such as Sentient, Talus, and Netmind. Why is the market opportunity structural? Global payments and remittances remain fragmented: • Annual payment flow exceeds $5.3 trillion • Remittances exceed $1 trillion • $140 billion lost due to transaction fees • $1.5 trillion lost due to settlement delays Tria's architecture addresses these inefficiencies through: • AI-driven transaction routing • Stablecoin settlement layer • Self-custodied Visa cards • Cross-chain liquidity abstraction • Sub-second inter-VM swaps • Unified consumer payment and AI agent execution channel Reportedly, governments and the United Nations are conducting pilot projects, highlighting Tria's commitment to driving regulated, real-world deployment. The focus here is on infrastructure building, not speculation. Revenue, distribution, integration, and production-grade throughput define this phase. #TRIA | $TRIA

Expand Institutional investors are now buying up all cryptocurrencies.