合约 - 528BTC

Expand Why is it so hard to escape the market top? This is an old article I wrote four years ago. Rereading it now, I realize I wasn't so naive back then. Why is it so hard to escape the market top? 1. Before the top, the market is always filled with rumors of even higher price targets and fervent sentiment. For example, the price of a certain commodity (likely referring to a specific commodity) reaching 10,000, while the fundamentals have indeed improved. 2. After the top, people feel that the wealth at the top is still theirs, leading to resentment and an inability to look forward; similar to the mentality of holding onto losing positions in futures contracts. 3. Even months after the top, various analysts, KOLs, and media remain bullish. 4. After the top, the market has been falling for several months, and the fundamentals have improved. In other words, escaping the top requires a keen sense of market sentiment, and people are easily misled by seemingly positive fundamentals. 5. After the top, because there have been multiple rebounds to new highs during a bull market, people easily mistake these rebounds for the start of a new bull market. This cycle of repeated bull market corrections leads to new lows. 6. Escaping the top involves judging the top of a major cycle. Precisely identifying the top is extremely difficult. Coupled with new developments such as Fed policies and Wall Street institutions, judgments are easily distorted and become subjective. 7. Various indicators of the top, such as the 60-day increase, slope, primary market valuation, bubble, 200-day dollar-cost averaging line, and UTXO waves, are all inaccurate in determining the exact top. 8. There is a lack of clear plans for both fixed-amount selling and top-selling. Excessive greed leads to trying to catch the top without sufficient time to pre-emptively sell. Risk control is crucial; it's not about being at the absolute top, but rather staying within a given range. Reflecting on this now, I feel my wisdom is only reliable in critical moments. You might find this somewhat like motivational fluff.