交易所 - 528BTC

Expand The $100,000 bottom for Bitcoin is a manifestation of the physics of scarcity. Evidence: • From May 8th to October 31st, 2025, Bitcoin closed above $100,000 for 177 consecutive trading days. • 450 Bitcoins are issued daily, equivalent to approximately $49.5 million (based on a $110,000 valuation). • Net inflows into spot ETFs amount to approximately $63 billion (as of 2025), roughly 3.5 times the annual new supply. • Exchanges experience net outflows of approximately 15,700 Bitcoins per month, compared to a monthly issuance of 13,500. • Exchange reserves are near multi-year lows, at approximately 2 million Bitcoins, compared to approximately 3.5 million in 2017. • The largest drawdown since this consecutive rise is -28.14%. • 30-day realized volatility is approximately $5,766. • A new all-time high of $124,753 was reached on October 6th. This means: Prices are no longer dominated by leveraged roulette. Absorption > Issuance + Exchange Outflows = Floating Capital Contraction. The fuel for a crash is being removed from the system. Reset compression to 15-30%, while bottoming capital increases. Trigger Signals to Watch: 1. Cumulative inflows into 30-day spot ETFs fall below $50 billion. 2. The probability of a sustained bottom below $100,000 drops below 0.45. 3. Exchange reserves grow by 10% over the rolling 90-day period. Strategy Recommendation: Accumulate 15-30% structural downside opportunities when trigger signals are not clear. If both trigger signals occur simultaneously, hedge against actual drawdown risk. With absorption remaining constant, the base case scenario is: by 2026, prices will remain between $150,000 and $250,000 due to continued withdrawal of supply from the market by institutions and government bonds. Conclusion: This represents a shift from a speculative cycle to a monetary settlement mechanism. Spot demand far exceeded new supply, causing a real-time depletion of liquid floating gold. Without a breakthrough of multiple trigger mechanisms, a price drop below $100,000 is virtually impossible. You may disagree with some statements, but you cannot deny the facts. Will the trigger mechanisms collapse first, or will people's doubts crumble first?