Something interesting is happening with $BTC… Most of us are familiar with Bitcoin's cyclical market fluctuations. Historically, bear markets last approximately 365 days, and by that calculation, we've currently passed about a third of a bear market cycle. What's different this time is the speed of the decline. The price has fallen much faster than before, by 1.25 times. Since BTC peaked in October, earlier than previous cycles, there's reason to expect the bottom to arrive sooner as well. My base case prediction is that the bottom will occur in August, not the fourth quarter. That's why I plan to build positions between June and August. This is partly based on intuition, but market structure also supports this prediction. The cycle appears to be shortening. As institutional demand grows, it will gradually offset the selling pressure from miners and OG. When this balance shifts, BTC's performance may no longer resemble a volatile asset, but rather a traditional risk asset, closer to the cyclical characteristics of the S&P 500. Based on retracement calculations, we may still have 22% to 30% retracement to go before the bottom. Historically, savvy investors establish spot positions when retracements reach 40% to 60%. I don't believe this cycle will see a 70% retracement. I believe we have 20% retracement to go before the bear market low, with the bottom forming in the third quarter. Using a 365-day model, we have 200 days until the official bottom. This gives us two paths: • Slow sideways consolidation with prices gradually declining, or • A rapid decline, ending the bear market cycle prematurely. I'm betting on prices bottoming out faster. Therefore, I will buy at the following prices: $69,000. $65,000. $60,000. $55,000. $50,000. $45,000. Don't cry because it's over, smile because it was. Note: Regarding large-scale long positions, you'll know when I go long.

On the long-term chart (5-15 minutes), Bitcoin broke through the previous low, then pulled back to retest it, with the price holding within this range (as mentioned in the quoted tweet). This is a textbook example of a return to a range, so the weekly opening price is the next reasonable target.

$BTC We've broken through the lows and formed a three-hit pattern. Ideally, bulls want to see a daily close above $75,000 and a break above the previous week's low (shadow). If the price breaks above the previous week's low (shadow), then looking for a short-term long opportunity would be appropriate, with a stop-loss order placed at the low of the shadow and a target price of $79,000.

One of the most successful trades of my trading career. Executed flawlessly, and publicly. $BTC

🚨 Breaking News The US government shutdown is over! The US House of Representatives has just passed the government funding bill. Good news for the market! $BTC

$BTC Testing the weekly opening price. Failure to hold this range will likely result in a liquidation shadow and a drop to 73.7K.

The New York Attorney General has just exposed a design flaw in the GENIUS Act. Stablecoin issuers can freeze your funds indefinitely. They earn 4-5% returns on the frozen assets. They have no legal obligation to return these funds. Since 2023, Tether has frozen $3.3 billion. Circle currently has $114 million frozen. Both companies earn Treasury yields from the funds they seize. The Act does not require their return. The prosecutor stated, “Funds stolen or converted into USDT will never be frozen, seized, or returned.” This is their business model: freeze funds when it’s politically advantageous. Profit from the volatility of the funds. Never return any funds. 84% of illicit cryptocurrency flows are through stablecoins. In 2025 alone, illicit cryptocurrency flows reached $129 billion. The GENIUS Act is touted as a consumer protection law. In reality, it’s a legal barrier that allows issuers to profit from crime while victims get nothing. Section 4(b) takes precedence over state laws that may compel restitution. Section 2(16) grants the Treasury Department the power to seize, freeze, and destroy assets. The federal government can now order the permanent destruction of digital assets. Issuers will continue to earn proceeds until the assets are destroyed. Letitia James and four district attorneys have just told Congress that they have built a profit-making machine disguised as regulation. But nobody listened. $BTC

Bitcoin's four-year cycle wasn't a natural evolution; it was stifled. Cause of Death: ETF Arbitrage. Analysis: The return after the 2024 halving was +31%, while the historical average return was a staggering +300%. This wasn't a delay, but a regime change. Culprit: 20% to 56% of ETF inflows weren't genuinely for Bitcoin adoption, but rather for basis trading chasing a 25% annualized return. Hedge funds bought spot ETFs while simultaneously shorting CME futures. Delta was neutral, indicating a complete lack of confidence. Evidence: Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that leveraged funds had a short-to-long ratio as high as 5:1. This wasn't institutional confidence in Bitcoin, but rather arbitrage trading with expiration dates. The return plummeted from 25% to 0.37%. Arbitrage trading is dying out. What was once the "institutional bottom line" is now the withdrawal of arbitrage capital. The correlation between ETF outflows and basis compression is as high as 0.878. This isn't market sentiment, it's mathematics. Final conclusion: The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq index has reached 0.75. Bitcoin is no longer affected by the halving mechanism, but by the Fed's policy. It's like a leveraged version of QQQ in a hardware wallet. Everyone waiting for the "cycle" to arrive is desperately searching for 2026 with a 2017 map. The next bull market won't stem from supply dynamics, but will only arrive when the basis exceeds 7%, put/call options fall below 0.6, and mechanical selling exhausts itself. Falsifiable prediction: If the price of Bitcoin exceeds $150,000 by the second quarter of 2026 without the Fed easing monetary policy, then my prediction is wrong, and the cycle still exists. Save this article. $BTC

BTC is currently trading within a narrow range. The price has fallen back below Monday's high of 79.2K. If it can hold above 76.8K (the trading range) and reverse from Monday's high, it could potentially reach 80K. If it fails to hold the trading range, it could fall to 72K.

Markets have suffered a severe blow, but the following economic events this week may reverse the downward trend. Monday: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Minutes Tuesday: US JOLTS Job Openings Data Wednesday: US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Data US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index Friday: US Jobs Report ECB Interest Rate Decision Bitcoin Price