比特币暴涨 - 528BTC

Expand One number can explain Bitcoin's price: That number is -0.65. This is Bitcoin's Z-score. In simple terms if you're not a statistician: The Z-score tells you how much the price deviates from its normal range. • Z = 0 → Price is normal • Z > 0 → Price is too high • Z < 0 → Price is too low It doesn't predict speculation, but rather measures the tension in the price. Here's the significance of -0.65: At this point after each previous halving, Bitcoin's price was above the trend level: 2012: +1.02 2016: +1.32 2020: +0.48 Today: -0.65 This has never happened before. Never in the last 15 years. So what does the data tell us next? I ran the full dataset: 5,681 daily observations. Every crash. Every bubble. Every macroeconomic system. The relationship between the Z-score and future prices is not weak. Correlation with future 18-month returns: -0.745 Variance explained by this single variable: approximately 56% This means that the degree of price overexpansion explains subsequent movements better than interest rates, CPI, market narratives, or sentiment. From Z ≤ -0.6 (where we are now): • 12-month win rate: 100% • Negative returns: 0 • Worst case: +47% • Median return: +181% From Z ≥ +1.0: • Win rate: 44% • Maximum drawdown: -73% This is not a subjective opinion. This is asymmetry. So why doesn't the price "feel" bullish? Because Bitcoin pricing is no longer like trading. It's being used. Bitcoin is now traded 24/7, settled instantly, and can be used as collateral. Funds can flow through Bitcoin without anyone pressing a buy button on an exchange. This temporarily suppresses prices. But it doesn't weaken demand. The market calls this "lack of interest." Mathematically, it's called a classification error. Meanwhile, supply has mathematically tightened permanently. The 2024 issuance halving. ETFs absorb hundreds of Bitcoins daily off-exchange. Institutions are quietly accumulating. Selling does occur, but Bitcoin is transferring from short-term holders to long-term holders' balance sheets at approximately a 36% discount to its network value. This is not distribution. This is a change of ownership. Mean reversion doesn't need a catalyst. Discrepancy half-life: Approximately 133 days. This means: • Approximately 50% of the gaps will be closed within about 4 months. • Approximately 75% of the gaps will be closed within about 8 months. • Approximately 90% of the gaps will be closed within about 12 months. No need for optimism. No explanation needed. Time will tell. This is not a trade. This is a position. It's not a bet on a "Bitcoin surge." It's a bet that mathematics still holds true in this cycle. Because when a highly stretched system recovers quickly...