The chart shows the investment cost of BTC spot ETFs. According to the 13F report submitted last quarter, the current ratio is approximately 30% institutional investors and 70% retail investors. On average, their cost is around $82,000. It's important to note here that if the price breaks through this level, although most people who buy spot ETFs are more inclined to hold for the long term, it could still trigger some selling. Just like the end of the previous seven-month-plus consolidation (circled in purple), a sharp price drop occurred after the price broke through. Conversely, it could also be said that these new whales on Wall Street are basically shaking out the most steadfast investors before launching an upward attack. We can see in the purple circle that after three rounds of consolidation using the spot ETF cost line as the midline, a new major upward trend began. Will this time be the same? Okay, so everyone can remember the number 82,000; this is one of the levels I'm currently paying attention to. #WhaleMovement #CryptoMarketWatch #FedRateCut

The continuously rising market share of the stablecoin USDT reflects a current market situation of more USDT than cryptocurrencies. However, the USDT share is fluctuating sideways at a high level, subtly suggesting a potential top formation. Normally, a decrease in USDT's share indicates that investors are exchanging USDT for various tokens, a sign of increased buying pressure. Conversely, an increase indicates a decrease. Additionally, the non-farm payroll data will be released at 9:30 PM tonight, likely causing significant market volatility. However, this volatility is temporary and will not directly change the market direction. The 18th brings important data on Japan's interest rate hike and the US CPI data, which I anticipate will have a downward impact on prices. Today, let's see how high this rebound goes. If it rebounds, pay attention to the news the day after tomorrow, which could impact prices and cause another sharp drop. Of course, this is largely speculation based on current price action. Focus on these key pieces of information. #WhaleMovement #FedRateCut #CryptoMarketWatch

The fear index has reached 10, marking the third time it has reached 10 at this low point, and the fourth extremely high fear index this year. With sentiment at this low point, is it advisable to maintain a bearish mindset, or should we buy more as prices fall further? The price is currently close to previous lows, which should theoretically provide strong support. As mentioned in my post this afternoon, if the price retraces to the 85600 level and holds, then a rebound is likely, and today's market will likely be dominated by a rebound. This afternoon, the price retraced to a low of 85850 before stopping its decline and rebounding all the way to where it is now. The 87100 level is currently a key resistance level. Returning to this extreme fear index of 10, it was tested on February 27, 2025, and the market immediately surged by over 10%, nearly 10,000 points. It also tested on November 16, 2025, but that day was ineffective, and the price continued to fall. Then came November 22nd, the lowest point of this round, which triggered a rebound of over 10,000 points. Then yesterday, the fear index reached 10 again. Therefore, if the price drops further now, you shouldn't blindly short. Be greedy when others are fearful; that's how you make money in this market. #CryptoMarketWatch #FOMCMeeting #WhaleMoves

Wow, last week, the whale address saw a net inflow of 12,075 tokens. From December 1st to 7th, there was a net inflow of 1,777 tokens. From November 24th to 30th, there was a net inflow of 3,916 tokens. From November 17th to 23rd, there was a net inflow of 25,594 tokens. From November 10th to 16th, there was a net inflow of 3,840 tokens. From November 3rd to 9th, there was a net inflow of 17,327 tokens. Therefore, I absolutely cannot believe that the market makers haven't started a phase of bottoming out over the past month. Of course, does the market makers starting a phase of bottoming out and accumulating shares mean that the price won't fall further? Not at all. Because during this process, the market makers will use some methods to acquire more shares. One of these is a sharp drop. A sharp drop is the most effective method. However, a sharp drop is not an endless decline. Its purpose is to scare people. But the potential for further decline is truly limited. In plain terms, any sharp drop presents an opportunity. Don't worry about a continuous decline. Based on price action analysis, I believe that before the price reaches the 100,000 mark, all declines are merely tactics, means, not the end goal. Therefore, buy heavily on big drops and lightly on small drops; you can still profit from rebounds. After all, it could be several percentage points. This is in terms of the broader picture. However, the current environment remains what I consider a bear market. This means that even if the market makers begin a phase of bottoming out, what follows will only be a phase of upward movement. At best, it might only reach between 100,000 and 110,000. #ETHPriceAnalysis #WhaleMovement #FedRateCut

December 11, 2025, Short Essay on $BTC After the expectation of an interest rate cut ended, this market trend is mostly over. The next obvious expectation to be hyped might be the selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman. But this will likely not happen until at least after Christmas. Therefore, I believe the next two weeks will be characterized by a downward correction with fluctuations. Whether it will break the previous low is still uncertain. In my view, breaking it presents a great opportunity for left-side trading. Holding it creates an opportunity for right-side trading. Either way, it's an opportunity; it just depends on whether you can control your fear and dare to buy in batches during the decline. If you can, you deserve to profit. If not, that's understandable; just look for right-side trading opportunities later. I have set the 92,000 level as the dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment. Before the price breaks through this level, it's a short-selling opportunity. If the price breaks through and holds above this level, it indicates that the bulls still intend to lure more buyers. At that time, shorting should be done with caution. Generally, sharp drops are followed by rebounds, so the next two days will likely be dominated by rebounds. As for the strength of the rebound, it's impossible to estimate at this point. However, I can set another dividing line: 90700. If this level is effectively broken, then the rebound is valid. If the price encounters resistance and falls back, breaking through today's low, then the market will become very weak. Although there may be further rebounds, the upside potential is unlikely to be significant. In short, I personally believe the price won't drop immediately. There should be a bullish counterattack, but it's unlikely to be a genuine upward move; it's more likely a bull trap. In short, establish your short positions in batches at higher levels. If the price starts a major downward correction from around 94500, reaching the range of 86600-87500 shouldn't be a problem. #CryptoMarketRebound #BitDigitalTransformation #FOMCMeeting

There will be one last interest rate cut in 2025, which is the day after tomorrow. What we can expect in 2026 is continued loose economic policies, token securitization, and the tokenization of securities, such as the on-chaining of everything (like gold). If any of these things can be implemented, 2026 won't be too bad. Looking at the previous weekly chart bottoming patterns, a new low was usually reached before a real reversal began. Following this script, the major players might create another wave of panic this month, or at the latest next month, before the Chinese New Year, to initiate a real upward trend. Therefore, don't worry too much about this direct bottoming out and then being gone forever; there will be other opportunities. The real danger is that when the opportunity comes, you scare yourself away. Finally, what could create the current bear market environment is either the collective action of on-chain whales or the mid-to-late or late-stage of the interest rate cut cycle. The so-called four-year cycle pattern is becoming increasingly ineffective as time goes on. After all, the signals for the start of a future bull market are no longer centered on the BTC halving. Currently, even if BTC production halved, its impact on overall market trading is less than 0.1%. The halving news primarily affects perceptions and formalities, with little substantive impact. The next four-year cycle will gradually fade from view, perhaps starting after this event. #CryptoMarketWatch #FedRestartingInterestRateCuttingPace #WhaleMovement

Whale addresses haven't seen any significant net outflows; in the past two days, they've maintained a net inflow of around 1000 ETH, providing a positive feedback to the price. Therefore, it's not surprising that the price will likely continue its upward trend with fluctuations. Furthermore, there's been a lot of positive news lately, including from that ancient super whale with exceptionally large funds, which opened a $170 million long position on-chain, with an average entry price of around 3050, targeting ETH. This is likely its most aggressive move recently, the last one being during the flash crash and massive short selling on October 11th. If even whales are serious, what reason do you have not to be? #FedRestartingRateCuttingPace #CryptoMarketWatch #ETHPriceAnalysis

#FedResumesRateCuttingPace #CryptoMarketWatch #USSECTokenizedStockTradingPlan December 8, 2025 《$BTC》Mini Essay Has the price stopped falling? Has the correction been complete? Is it about to rise again? After yesterday's bottoming out and rebound, the probability of the price stopping its decline and starting to rise is relatively high. If it can break through and hold above 92,000 today, then the outlook is basically bullish. However, I think that the current key resistance zone [92,000-92,600] is likely to pose some resistance to the price. But does this mean that we can short here? My suggestion is to short only if a relatively clear bearish signal appears. Don't short if no clear bearish signal appears. We can't force a trade here, because whether it breaks through or not is entirely up to the major players. Currently, the bulls are temporarily in control of the market. If the price does encounter resistance and falls back within the 92000-92600 range, the downside target isn't deep, around the 90200-90500 range, where there's support and a good chance of going long. However, if this range is broken, it indicates renewed selling pressure, potentially changing the balance of power between bulls and bears. In that case, going long again would require greater caution. In short, based on current price action, I think the possibility of a bull trap is low, and the probability of an upward move is higher. Of course, if the price breaks through and holds above 92000, it would essentially be a sustained upward move. Even if this doesn't materialize, a sideways-to-upward trend is more likely. If the upward trend resumes here, maintaining a sideways-to-upward structure, then it's very possible that the price will reach 96000 or higher this month.

#BitcoinVSTokenizedGold #FedResumesInterestRateCuttingPace #BitDigitalTransformation The Binance spot trading ratio has become unbalanced again. The last time this happened was eight months ago, in April or May, after the major crash in the first half of this year. What does this imbalance mean? It means there was a large influx of large investors buying in. As we analyzed a few days ago, when the price reached its lowest point of 80,600, whale addresses saw a massive net inflow, accumulating large amounts of cryptocurrency while the price continued to fall, aggressively buying up the bottom. Now, suddenly, a series of good news are pouring in. For example, Vanguard Group, one of the asset management giants, officially launched cryptocurrency trading this week. And in the last two days, another very large giant, Charles Schwab, the largest online brokerage in the US, revealed that it will officially launch BTC and ETH trading early next year. These financial giants, seeing BlackRock's success and the steady collection of management fees each year, since BTC has become BlackRock's most profitable asset class. Therefore, the good news is that while there's some positive feedback, the more significant aspect is that this round of market movement is more certain than in the past. Although the gains may not be as substantial as earlier periods, the mainstream financial system has begun to intervene, signifying that BTC is gradually integrating into real-world financial scenarios, and its future development potential remains vast.

Yesterday's net change in on-chain whale addresses showed outflows and selling. This could mean that the rebounded price has reached the psychological price level of some whales, who are now selling in batches to buy at lower prices, preparing for a consolidation phase. If today's data also shows a net outflow, the need for adjustment may be greater. What this means is that if the price continues to hold at a high level today without falling, and whale addresses show another net outflow, then caution is warranted. Alternatively, the price may still be in the process of adjustment. Additionally, data from spot ETFs shows a net outflow of $14 million, equivalent to just over 100 BTC, yesterday. This amount is small, indicating that upward momentum is slowing, and the price is currently facing a natural adjustment due to a lack of liquidity. Going long now is not advisable; a strategy of selling high and buying low is recommended. For buying low, wait for even lower levels to hold. #BitcoinVSTokenizedGold #ETHTrendAnalysis #AltcoinSeasonIsComing?