As of yesterday's on-chain data, whale addresses saw a net inflow of 1472 BTC. While this amount isn't large, it's still relatively high for the past week. It's not enough, but it shows a positive trend and is showing signs of continued increase. I believe that if the price wants to attempt an upward breakout, the buying power of large whales will be crucial. Furthermore, in past major bear markets, the final step is usually to force so-called long-term holders into a large-scale loss-making sell-off. The cost price for these long-term holders is currently around 66,000. And as the chart clearly shows, long-term holders haven't actually incurred losses. So what happens if they haven't? They need to create losses from scratch. Since we currently believe the environment is a bear market—this is a premise—and historical data suggests that one of the conditions for the end of a major bear market is that long-term holders incur significant losses. The price is currently just touching the indicator line. Therefore, I believe the indicator line will likely provide some support, but not enough to trigger a price reversal. Once the price rebounds to a certain level, the indicator line will follow, meaning the average cost of long-term holders will increase. However, the final result will be that the price breaks below the indicator line again, and effectively breaks below it, causing long-term holders to incur significant losses. As for the extent of these losses, I cannot predict here. Finally, I believe the true bottom will only be reached when long-term holders are selling at a loss. So, is it now? Based on this indicator, it probably isn't. Even if a major rebound occurs in the future, after it ends, we will likely face another period of continuous decline in the bear market. But I think that will be in the mid-to-late stages of the bear market, or even the later stages. #CryptoMarketRebound #TrumpStateoftheUnionAddress