Regarding the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the market has largely reached a consensus that interest rates will remain unchanged at the March meeting. Therefore, this outcome is unlikely to cause significant volatility, as it has been almost entirely priced in by the market. The real focus will be on the pressure that a hawkish signal from the meeting will put on risk assets. Currently, regarding the interest rate path (dot plot), the market generally expects a significant postponement of rate cuts this year. The dot plot is projected to show only 1-2 rate cuts throughout 2026, with the first cut potentially delayed from mid-year to September or even later. This is the core of the current market debate. If the dot plot is more hawkish than expected, for example, showing only one rate cut, it will directly impact market sentiment. After all, due to the risk of stagflation, the Fed is expected to lower its GDP growth forecast while raising its PCE inflation forecast. Then, we will focus on Powell's speech. Pay close attention to his statements regarding the impact of oil prices, inflation risks, and the timing of rate cuts. I estimate he will repeat the same old rhetoric: increased uncertainty about the inflation outlook, a reiteration of the moderate decline in core inflation, but continued caution regarding restarting rate hikes. It's important to note that any wording suggesting "higher and longer interest rates" will be considered negative for risk assets. In short, the market has already priced in a "no rate cut" and "hawkish signals." The meeting itself is likely to be the culmination of short-term negative news. The key is the magnitude of the impact, which depends on whether the dot plot and the hawkishness of Powell's speech exceed current market expectations. #BitcoinReboundsTo70,000 #BitcoinReclaims$70,000