I've been catching a flight all day today, so I might not have time to update the data. Looking at the candlestick chart, the current price is near yesterday's 4-hour support level. If it breaks below that level, the two potential pullback levels are $112,347 and $110,870. Today's resistance level is $114,779 (purple line). If it doesn't rebound and hold above this level, I'm short-term bearish. See if there's an opportunity to buy at a high point (3-pip stop-loss) here today. If you can't find a buy within 3 candlesticks, exit and look for another opportunity tomorrow. This article is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh

Asset prices are determined by supply and demand. In the BTC market, long-term holders (LTH) are typically the primary suppliers, while short-term holders (STH) are the demanders. Understanding this relationship can help us understand market trends. The following chart illustrates this: Figure 1 shows the distribution of BTC held for at least six months, including those held for 7-10 years, or even longer. For example, the blue column in June 2024 and the purple column in July 2025 were generated by the Mt. Gox token transfer and the sale of 80,000 coins by the ancient whale, respectively. (Figure 1) It can be seen that whenever BTC reaches its peak, the LTH distribution is the largest, as market demand is at its peak and liquidity is at its highest. New capital (STH) continues to flow in, taking over the LTH sales and driving the price higher. Conversely, when the trend shifts from strong to weak, LTH distributions will also be relatively weak, primarily due to insufficient market liquidity and reduced demand. If LTH continues to increase its distribution scale during this period, it will put pressure on the market. For example, currently, LTH's 7-day average daily distribution is 25,000 BTC (primarily from stocks held for 6-3 years). This scale is significantly higher than the 15,000 daily averages from July to September 2024 and the 20,000 daily averages from February to April 2025, making it a relatively high level. Therefore, we must consider the current market demand. The main drivers of distributions in this cycle include treasury companies like MSTR and net buying from traditional ETF investors. Clearly, both of these major sources of demand are somewhat sluggish at the moment. Therefore, when demand strengthens and distributions weaken, the market will likely recover. Otherwise, further adjustments are needed. The above is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ------------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh

Typo in the article: The price of STH-RP on October 7th was 113,000 yuan...it should be October 17th

Those who didn't understand probably didn't read the quote. The reason for the short text is that it states, "I personally estimate the extreme retracement range will be between 9/8 and 10/4." 10/4 arrived yesterday, so the target is within range. Furthermore, only 53,000 BTC can be newly added per day, indicating that there is significant capital taking over the sell-off of stocks at other price points.

The rapid decline has significantly altered the structure of BTC's holdings in the high-end range. 1. Previously firm holdings at $117,000 have begun to weaken, with investors choosing to sell at a loss as the price further declines; 460,000 BTC remain. 2. A new, massive holding column has formed at $112,000, indicating a significant amount of capital buying the dip here. A total of 614,000 BTC has accumulated, currently the highest column in the entire holding structure. 3. The current influx of capital indicates a certain consensus around the $112,000 price point, making it the current strongest support level. (Figure 1) The exchange of high-priced holdings for low-priced holdings will create significant selling pressure, impacting the short-term market. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, this may not be a negative development. First, the influx of capital at $112,000 will slow the pace and magnitude of the decline. Second, the overall cost of capital reduction resulting from this turnover will facilitate the initiation of the next trend. If BTC continues to fluctuate downward, based on the current chip structure, I personally predict that the extreme correction range will be between 9.8 and 10.4. Of course, the actual situation will be affected by macroeconomic policies, market sentiment, and unforeseen black swan events, so we will have to take it one step at a time. The above is for educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. ------------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh

The 4-hour K-line has been suppressed by the standard line for four consecutive candlesticks. If it fails to recover and re-examine $112,768, the short-term outlook remains bearish. According to the algorithm, the most likely targets below are: 1. $109,861 2. $108,405. This is based on the retracement range calculated from the falling K-line at 12:00 PM on October 14th. This indicates that the retracement has not yet reached its peak unless external factors change it.

Correction: The text in the lower right corner of the chart is incorrect. It should be: "Investor confidence has shifted from positive to hesitant."

As of October 10th, the current BTC options market structure is dominated by call buying on the upper side and put selling on the lower side, forming a typical "short on top, long on bottom" gamma structure. The specific price range and net premium size are shown in Figure 1: (Figure 1) Therefore, when the price is within the range of dense call buying (US$113,000–US$125,000), market makers are in the short gamma zone. When the price rises, they must passively buy spot to hedge, generating a bullish effect; conversely, when the price falls, they must passively sell, driving the price down. This range is therefore known as the "volatility amplification zone." When the price enters this volatility zone, market makers' hedging needs are most sensitive, and price fluctuations trigger stronger passive buy and sell feedback. When the price falls below US$106,000, market makers are in the long gamma zone, meaning they will buy spot to hedge when the price falls, thus providing a buffer. This is known as the "gamma support band." When prices fall into the long gamma band, market makers' hedging behavior shifts to "buying on the dip," providing natural support, absorbing downward fluctuations and causing prices to consolidate. The above is for educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. ------------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh

On-chain data is undoubtedly slow to react to such a rapid influx. Trump's volatility is a constant threat, and coupled with the low liquidity during the weekend, unexpected events are most likely to occur. Just in case, I placed a conditional order near $121,000, as I'm willing to take profit there. If the price drops and then rises again, I'll be fine. In fact, the early morning signal had already reached the lowest blue line, currently at $101,000 (Figure 1); I personally believe this will be the upper limit of this correction. Of course, whether a trend has ended cannot be determined solely by one day's data. We also need to observe the behavior of whales over the next few days, the supply and demand relationship between long-term and short-term holders, and the sentiment of traders in the derivatives market. Looking at the short term, as shown in Figure 2, as long as three or four candlesticks on the 4-hour chart can hold above $112,441, the short-term trend will be considered stable. We are currently on the first candlestick. This article is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh Additionally, Figure 1 now looks like this:

Binance's merchandise is usually standard essentials, like backpacks, water bottles, T-shirts, hats, and so on. But if you occasionally receive something "unusual," be wary, as it could be your "Binance password"! In December 2024, Binance gave me a pair of handcuffs to help me keep my hands under control; ultimately, it helped me avoid the subsequent crash and successfully escape the top. In October 2024, when I opened my Binance Mid-Autumn Festival gift package, a figurine once again puzzled me. Until I stumbled upon 0x02...e4444..., and suddenly it clicked! This clearly means: If you don't buy PALU now, you'll be facing an endless "delivery life"! (All the gear is ready for you.) That night, I tossed and turned, experiencing the feeling of being pushed 15 times a day for the first time in my life. This will keep me from having to deliver food for at least three months. Thanks to @binancezh for another metaphysical transmission! So your golden color is a gift to my golden years!