Four months later, the US government has again seen a transfer of its Bitcoin holdings, especially given today's heightened market sentiment. With massive tariff refunds and war expenses in Iran looming, concerns are growing that the US might actually sell Bitcoin under such financial pressure. However, the probability of the US government selling Bitcoin remains very low. First, a transfer doesn't necessarily indicate anything; as shown in the chart, transfers have occurred almost monthly. Second, while the US government did sell Bitcoin years ago, these were always through pre-announced judicial auctions and OTC transactions. Finally, the National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, signed last year, explicitly prohibits the government from selling Bitcoin held in the reserve for 20 years—a legally mandated rule.
However, there is an "exception." Not all Bitcoin held by the US government has been transferred to the strategic reserve. A portion of seized Bitcoin is still undergoing judicial proceedings. Until a court ruling authorizes its confiscation, it doesn't legally belong to the US government and is temporarily held in escrow. Ultimately, depending on the court's ruling, if it is nationalized, it will be transferred to the strategic reserve and locked for 20 years, or it will be returned to the victims.
Therefore, according to the law, most of the Bitcoin held in the US government's strategic reserves cannot be sold within 20 years, and the small portion of Bitcoin temporarily held in custody will not be sold directly; at most, it will only be returned to the victims.
Don't panic 😥
Additional information: The executive order signed by the White House regarding the strategic Bitcoin reserve stipulates an indefinite ban on sale without additional conditions. The 20-year ban is related to the proposed Bitcoin reserve bill. However, both the executive order and the bill stipulate a long-term ban on sale. Therefore, Bitcoin already in the reserves cannot be moved according to regulations; at most, only Bitcoins seized but not yet in the reserves will be returned to the victims.