The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for this month will be announced at 2:00 AM this Thursday. Currently, the futures market indicates a 99% probability of no change. For next month's meeting, the market believes there's a 97% probability of no change. The Fed's impact on the market in the next two months is likely to be relatively limited. Below is a full analysis of the next two Fed meetings 🧵 1/ First, the big picture: The March and April FOMC meetings may be a watershed moment for the crypto market this year. The current background is extremely complex: the Middle East situation has led to soaring energy prices, reigniting the risk of rising inflation (PCE), and the market has shifted from "optimistic rate cuts" at the beginning of the year to "higher for longer" rates. 2/ Key dates: March 19th: The market expects a 99% probability of no change (3.5%-3.75%). The focus is on the "dot plot"—there is a possibility of no rate cuts this year. April 29th: Powell's last key meeting before his term expires (May). His farewell speech may set the tone for liquidity in the second half of 2026. 3/ 📉 Direct Impact on $BTC: Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 74,000, with the Greed Index at neutral. Hawkish Signal: If the dot plot shows only one or even zero rate cuts in 2026, market expectations will decline, liquidity will tighten, and BTC will highly likely retest the 68,000 support level. Dovish Surprise: If Powell mentions "controllable inflation" or "focus on the labor market," improved liquidity expectations will directly impact the 800,000 mark. 4/ X Variable: Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for the new chairman, has more unpredictable policy preferences than Powell. The market fears nothing more than a "policy vacuum" or a "hawkish reshuffle." Before the April meeting, institutional funds may choose to sell off for safe haven, causing significant volatility in altcoins. 5/ Strategy Recommendations: Don't go all in: Macroeconomic risks (Warsh effect + energy inflation) are not yet fully realized. Pay attention to exchange rates: If $DXY breaks through 106, crypto assets will face short-term pressure. Long-term positioning: The supply compression effect after the halving is still present; volatility is an entry ticket for patient investors. 6/ Summary: The March meeting will reveal the "attitude," and the April meeting will reveal the "handover." In an uncertain macroeconomic environment, preserving capital is more important than capturing every fluctuation. Do you think the Fed will cut interest rates again this year? Tell me your opinion in the comments! #BTC #Fed