There were no major macroeconomic data releases this week. The only significant macroeconomic event is the approaching one-month anniversary of the US-Israel attacks on Iran, raising questions about how the tensions will develop. US stocks have performed poorly this week, with major stocks and indices experiencing significant declines. Cryptocurrency was also affected and dragged down, effectively breaking below $70,000. Implied volatility for options across all major maturities is rising, while skew has declined across the board, indicating market concerns about a potential escalation of the crisis. Put options accounted for nearly 70% of trading volume, a high percentage typically seen only during periods of market panic and widespread concern among large investors about downside risk.

President Trump pulled another stunt over the weekend. This morning, I wanted to check how it affected the US stock market, but found that the overnight trading session hadn't opened yet. So I opened a cryptocurrency app and glanced at the prices of Nvidia and Tesla. Cryptocurrency will undoubtedly revolutionize the existing financial markets; traditional market systems are too cumbersome. Whether it's product smoothness, transparency, or rules, cryptocurrencies are miles ahead of traditional finance.

[March 20 Options Settlement Data] 23,000 BTC options expired, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum support level of $70,000, and a notional value of $1.6 billion. 176,000 ETH options expired, with a Put/Call Ratio of 1.04, a maximum support level of $2,150, and a notional value of $370 million. The current rally in the crypto market has ended. Bitcoin briefly fell below the $70,000 mark. The $75,000 level has been frequently mentioned as a key resistance level in the past week. At the end of the month, 5% of options were concentrated at this price, ultimately failing to break through and falling back to around $70,000. Next Friday is the quarterly settlement. Looking at the options market data, $75K is the price with the most concentrated open interest and is an absolute resistance level. Below, $65K, $62K, and $60K are all areas of concentrated open interest and can be considered support levels for further declines. This week, the implied volatility (IV) and volatile interest (RV) of major term options remained largely unchanged. The IV for major term BTC options was at 50%, and the IV for major term ETH options was at 70%. The continued decline in RV led to a continued rise in VRP. Only 5% of total open interest in options expired, continuing to hit record lows. Despite volatility, Bitcoin trading activity remained extremely low. Skew declined across the board due to the price drop, indicating the market remains in a bear market and bullish sentiment is very fragile.

The US stock market continues to have a significant impact on cryptocurrencies. After 6 PM last night, major US stocks experienced a noticeable decline, directly dragging Bitcoin down from 74,000 to 71,000. This decline also spread to the altcoin market. However, the upward movement following this decline was extremely short-lived, and by this morning it had fallen to a lower level than yesterday afternoon. Although Powell's remarks were hawkish, warning of inflationary risks from regional conflicts and suggesting the Fed might not cut interest rates this year, the market had already priced in this scenario, and the interest rate decision and speech were not unexpected. With the quarterly settlement week approaching, barring any major events, Bitcoin is likely to enter a period of relatively low volatility.

😁Did anyone notice that I wrote 800,000 instead of 80K?

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Why is cryptocurrency a haven for barbell strategies? Because it possesses two extremes: 1) Extremely high interest rates on the safe side. BFX's USD financing offers an annualized return of 12%, three times that of US Treasury bonds. Traditional market all-weather portfolios, aiming for low volatility and crisis resistance, generally offer annualized returns of 7-8%, far exceeding this after risk adjustment. Over the past 5 years, $10,000 invested in USD financing on Bitfinex has compounded to $18,278 (+82.8%). On the same day, $10,000 invested in BTC spot trading would be worth $14,106 today (+41.1%). Blindly lending money outperformed holding cryptocurrency after a bull-bear cycle. 2) Extremely lucrative tails. Luna's halving, FTX's collapse to zero, the October crash… every 1-2 years there's a 30%+ drop, not only deep but also remarkably persistent. Put options offer a significantly higher probability of winning and a much higher risk-reward ratio in this environment compared to traditional markets. - Traditional market barbell strategies: 4% annualized return on government bonds + tail hedging. The tail is thin, hedging costs are high, and a black swan event might not occur even once every 10 years. (The author has been working on this for 2020, writing several books, but the black swan hasn't arrived yet.) - Crypto market barbell strategies: 12% annualized return on lending + high-threshold IVP purchase of Put options (a black swan event may have already occurred). The tail is thick, with opportunities every year. Only 5% of the funds are used annually for Put purchases, lending interest completely covers the premium, and the potential for a massive return (relative to the premium) during a market crash is pure profit. This is why not using barbell strategies in the crypto market is a huge waste! (Backtesting results for the barbell strategy over the past year are in the following reply.)

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for this month will be announced at 2:00 AM this Thursday. Currently, the futures market indicates a 99% probability of no change. For next month's meeting, the market believes there's a 97% probability of no change. The Fed's impact on the market in the next two months is likely to be relatively limited. Below is a full analysis of the next two Fed meetings 🧵 1/ First, the big picture: The March and April FOMC meetings may be a watershed moment for the crypto market this year. The current background is extremely complex: the Middle East situation has led to soaring energy prices, reigniting the risk of rising inflation (PCE), and the market has shifted from "optimistic rate cuts" at the beginning of the year to "higher for longer" rates. 2/ Key dates: March 19th: The market expects a 99% probability of no change (3.5%-3.75%). The focus is on the "dot plot"—there is a possibility of no rate cuts this year. April 29th: Powell's last key meeting before his term expires (May). His farewell speech may set the tone for liquidity in the second half of 2026. 3/ 📉 Direct Impact on $BTC: Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 74,000, with the Greed Index at neutral. Hawkish Signal: If the dot plot shows only one or even zero rate cuts in 2026, market expectations will decline, liquidity will tighten, and BTC will highly likely retest the 68,000 support level. Dovish Surprise: If Powell mentions "controllable inflation" or "focus on the labor market," improved liquidity expectations will directly impact the 800,000 mark. 4/ X Variable: Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for the new chairman, has more unpredictable policy preferences than Powell. The market fears nothing more than a "policy vacuum" or a "hawkish reshuffle." Before the April meeting, institutional funds may choose to sell off for safe haven, causing significant volatility in altcoins. 5/ Strategy Recommendations: Don't go all in: Macroeconomic risks (Warsh effect + energy inflation) are not yet fully realized. Pay attention to exchange rates: If $DXY breaks through 106, crypto assets will face short-term pressure. Long-term positioning: The supply compression effect after the halving is still present; volatility is an entry ticket for patient investors. 6/ Summary: The March meeting will reveal the "attitude," and the April meeting will reveal the "handover." In an uncertain macroeconomic environment, preserving capital is more important than capturing every fluctuation. Do you think the Fed will cut interest rates again this year? Tell me your opinion in the comments! #BTC #Fed

Quarterly options expiring at the end of the month currently account for over 40% of open interest, and call options at $75,000 account for over 5% – an unprecedented level of concentration, with everyone betting on $75,000. The Gamma wall and Gamma concentration signify a unified market opinion. When everyone is on the same wavelength, the market either moves in the desired direction or crashes together. Currently, the price is at $73,500, very close to $75,000, coinciding with the upper edge of a nearly two-month consolidation range. All the factors are aligned; whether it can break $75,000 depends on this week. We haven't seen such a fierce battle between bulls and bears in months.

Following the weekly settlement, BTC surged, currently approaching $74,000, the upper limit of the trading range since February. The options market reacted tepidly, with the implied volatility of BTC end-of-term options remaining below 50%, and ETH end-of-term options below 70%, both lower than the implied volatility of their main maturities. In terms of trading volume, large-volume call options accounted for less than 30% of trading, concentrated in slightly out-of-the-money options at the end of the month, which is relatively low for a 5% price increase. The options market has not priced in this surge well; VRP rebounded but did not turn positive, and the market still believes volatility is overvalued. Currently, the trading range has not been effectively broken. If a breakout above $75,000 can occur over the weekend during a period of low liquidity, breaking out of the trading range, then a sustained upward trend is possible, but this is highly unlikely.