[The Cook Capital Market View] The implied volatility (IV) has declined significantly since last weekend, falling from 47% to below 40%. Coupled with the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, the market is unlikely to be very stable. Therefore, it is advisable to reduce positions in put options expiring before November this week, and wait for suitable trading opportunities after the FOMC meeting.

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Data from the Bitcoin options block market shows a significant increase in the proportion of Bitcoin put options trading volume over the past 24 hours, exceeding $1.15 billion, accounting for 28% of total market volume. Trading activity is primarily concentrated in shallowly out-of-the-money put options from this week and this month, with the peak trading range between 10.4K and 10.8K. At the same time, the skew has become more negative, with the short-term skew being particularly pronounced, reaching levels comparable to those seen on the 11th. This suggests that the options market, particularly among major players like market makers, is experiencing a high level of fear regarding future market declines, even approaching the sentiment seen after the full-scale market crash on the 11th. Mimicking the trades of these major players and purchasing defensive put options would be a better option now.

The Cook Capital Market View After last week's plunge, the market generally believes there may be aftershocks. The medium- and long-term smile has almost disappeared, and the BTC IV curve is extremely flat, with ATM IV across maturities generally ranging from 41-45%. The risks brought about by macroeconomic factors such as the renewed trade war have not been eliminated. Therefore, the current BTC IV pricing is actually reasonable, and the month-end IV may even be slightly low.

#daily @GreeksLive English Community Daily Brief ===== Published: 2025-10-13 Overall Market Sentiment ===== The community experienced extreme volatility, with a sudden 10% surge in a single day causing confusion among traders holding mixed positions. Most traders are closely watching the $4,000-$4,500 range. There is disagreement on whether this rally will continue or retrace next week, though several believe a pullback will occur before the 17th. Delta Management Crisis - Short Calls Take a Hit ===== • Several traders sold calls to hedge the delta of their put positions, only to be severely impacted by the aggressive rally. Positions with strike prices of $3850 and $4000 are now experiencing deep losses. • Traders emphasize that now is the time to lock in positions and trade high volatility, not to rest. The current volatility of 44% provides an opportunity to harvest premiums. • Referring to the precedent in February, when the price rose from $78,000 to $95,000 and then continued to decline, suggests that the current surge caused by a liquidity purge may be a similar trap before resuming the downtrend.

#Daily @GreeksLive Chinese Community Daily Briefing ===== Published: 2025-10-09 Overall Market Sentiment ===== The overall sentiment in the group is pessimistic, with traders believing that the cryptocurrency market is underperforming US stocks, A-shares, and gold. Most traders are disappointed with ETH's weak performance. Regarding key support levels, BTC's 120,000 level is heavily supported by pending orders, while ETH's 4,400 level has repeatedly failed to break through. There is disagreement within the group on whether the bull market is still underway, with some traders expressing their intention to shift to US stocks after the next bear market. Hot Topics ===== • BNB becomes a market focus: After building a position around 1070, it rose to a high of 1362 before retracing to 1254, rising to third place in the cryptocurrency market cap. Some traders took profits near 1300, believing that small-scale speculation was rampant, and the large net outflow from the spot market indicated peak sentiment. • Technical analysis based on the Chaos Theory indicates that ETH has shown a "second sell" signal, potentially forming a rising flag pattern. ETH fell from 4754 to below 4400, a 10% drop, significantly underperforming BTC. Some traders believe a potential breakout is possible, targeting the 4000-5000 range. • The surge in the A-share STAR Market has led to a scarcity of out-of-the-money calls, with the CSI 300 index rising 2% in a single hour, reaching a 15-year high. Ray Dalio warned that the world economy has reached a historical juncture, comparable to the 1930s and 1970s, and recommended allocating assets like gold and Bitcoin to preserve value.

October Options Market Analysis Call options between $120,000 and $140,000 remain the most concentrated contracts, with the highest concentration of Bitcoin positions concentrated at the key $120,000 price level. Major participants are focusing on out-of-the-money call options and strike prices near recent all-time highs. Since September, block trading has been extremely active, primarily concentrated in monthly and weekly contracts. As October began, out-of-the-money options expiring in late October began to attract attention. Regarding market maker positions, positions below $120,000 are relatively scarce, and overall market maker gamma remains low, meaning that small price fluctuations have limited impact. However, if Bitcoin falls below $110,000, market makers will need to increase their short positions to reduce their risk exposure; conversely, if it reaches a new high, they will need to buy Bitcoin to hedge the risk. As mentioned earlier, $110,000 and the all-time high are two key levels to monitor. I still believe the market environment will remain favorable in October. During their discussions, many senior institutional traders expressed optimistic expectations for the fourth quarter, and the overall institutional holdings also showed a bullish trend towards the October market.

#daily @GreeksLive English Community Daily Brief ===== Published: 2025-10-08 Overall Market Sentiment ===== The community is showing near-term bearish sentiment, anticipating a downtrend, with particular focus on ETH dropping to 4200-4300 and BTC testing 116-118k. However, a clear divide exists between short-term bearish traders and long-term bullish holders, sparking debate over whether declining BTC volatility and institutionalization signal maturity or weakness. Bitcoin Volatility Suppression and Structural Market Changes ===== • A widespread debate has emerged regarding BTC losing its unique upside volatility characteristics since the launch of IBIT options, with the asset now behaving more like traditional equities, with rising prices but compressed volatility. • The argument argues that BTC's compound annual growth rate since its 2021 peak has been only 10%, underperforming many traditional assets year-to-date, including French and UK ETFs. This is the first time in history that holding BTC has a significant opportunity cost. • The counter-argument emphasizes expanding the timeframe beyond short-term performance, comparing BTC's programmatic scarcity to gold's decade-long consolidation around $2,000 (followed by its recent breakout), and arguing that institutionalization will not alter its long-term trajectory, driven by design and inevitable money printing, to over $1 million.

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#Daily @Greeks.Live English Community Daily Briefing ===== Published: 2025-10-03 Overall Market Sentiment ===== The market shows mixed sentiment, with bearish options traders squeezed by a sharp rally that exceeded market expectations. Key watch levels include $115,000 as potential support and $127,000-$180,000 as bullish targets, but traders are divided on whether this rally will be sustainable or quickly reverse. Volatility Trading Disaster - Options Sellers Take a Hit ===== • ETH and altcoin short and call positions suffered losses amidst an unexpected 3 standard deviation move, despite the market pricing in only 40% volatility. • More options sellers shifted to buying puts and selling calls. • Market structure suggests the long-short ratio fell from below 2 to below 1 in just one week, while open interest remains elevated, potentially setting the stage for a short squeeze.