Why is cryptocurrency a haven for barbell strategies? Because it possesses two extremes:
1) Extremely high interest rates on the safe side. BFX's USD financing offers an annualized return of 12%, three times that of US Treasury bonds. Traditional market all-weather portfolios, aiming for low volatility and crisis resistance, generally offer annualized returns of 7-8%, far exceeding this after risk adjustment.
Over the past 5 years, $10,000 invested in USD financing on Bitfinex has compounded to $18,278 (+82.8%). On the same day, $10,000 invested in BTC spot trading would be worth $14,106 today (+41.1%). Blindly lending money outperformed holding cryptocurrency after a bull-bear cycle.
2) Extremely lucrative tails. Luna's halving, FTX's collapse to zero, the October crash… every 1-2 years there's a 30%+ drop, not only deep but also remarkably persistent. Put options offer a significantly higher probability of winning and a much higher risk-reward ratio in this environment compared to traditional markets.
- Traditional market barbell strategies: 4% annualized return on government bonds + tail hedging. The tail is thin, hedging costs are high, and a black swan event might not occur even once every 10 years. (The author has been working on this for 2020, writing several books, but the black swan hasn't arrived yet.)
- Crypto market barbell strategies: 12% annualized return on lending + high-threshold IVP purchase of Put options (a black swan event may have already occurred). The tail is thick, with opportunities every year. Only 5% of the funds are used annually for Put purchases, lending interest completely covers the premium, and the potential for a massive return (relative to the premium) during a market crash is pure profit.
This is why not using barbell strategies in the crypto market is a huge waste! (Backtesting results for the barbell strategy over the past year are in the following reply.)