Is this the 2028 diamond bottom for BTC?
In 2026, Bitcoin delivered its worst start to the year in a decade.
From $109,000 at the beginning of the year, it has fallen to $65,000, a drop of 24%; ETH has plummeted even further, by 34%. But what's most alarming isn't the numbers, but the fact that this crash was "without reason."
I. A Drop Without Reason is the Deepest Fear
The 2018 crash was due to the ICO bubble, and the 2022 crash was due to the FTX and Luna collapses. Historically, major crashes always have "villains," but 2026 is only marked by deathly silence: no hackers, no bans, no bankruptcies.
This "slow bleeding" amplifies panic exponentially: when negative news finds no outlet, the market begins an irrational sell-off.
II. Have the Bottom-Fishing Indicators Reached the Bottom?
According to fuckbtc's real-time data on February 25th, our bottom-fishing model currently only has one green light:
✅ Fear & Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)
❌ MVRV < 1.0 (Currently 1.09)
❌ Price ≤ 200-Week Moving Average ($58,516)
❌ Price < P25 Model Price ($50,442)
❌ Approaching Miner Shutdown Price
The 1/5 signal indicates: The absolute price bottom may not have been reached yet, but the sentiment bottom has already been breached. Historically, "11" has only appeared in the darkest moments like $3,000 and $16,000.
III. Positive Signals Beneath the Surface: Who is Exiting? Who is Trapped?
Major Liquidity Reshuffle: USDT saw a net outflow of $3 billion over 60 days, equivalent to the $16,000 bottom in 2022. This means that leverage in the market has been largely eliminated.
Whales are collectively trapped: Short-term whales have incurred losses of up to $26 billion (mostly from positions built between $90,000 and $120,000). When large funds are trapped by 40%, the momentum for active selling often dries up because "cutting losses is meaningless."
Conclusion: A safety margin has appeared.
I don't predict that $64,000 is the absolute bottom, but in "unexplained drops," the rebounds are often the strongest.
If you are currently holding no positions, congratulations, you have avoided the most severe drawdown. Every "unexplained" darkest moment eventually becomes a diamond bottom leading to the next cycle. $64,000 in 2026 might be the number you most regret not adding to your position when you look back in 2028. $BTC
