The first sign of the AI bubble bursting has appeared.
The AI boom was marked by:
1. Nvidia's commitment to invest $100 billion in OpenAI.
2. OpenAI's commitment to buy computing power from Oracle.
3. Oracle buying graphics cards from Nvidia to significantly expand its data centers, then selling the computing power to OpenAI.
Now, Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, is saying: "Who said I was definitely going to invest? He invited us to invest, and I haven't even decided whether to invest or not!"
So OpenAI is saying: "Let's just make our own chips, damn it."
Oracle: "What the hell? I've raised so much money to buy cards and build data centers, what are you two doing? I'm doomed, I'll have to lay off employees, this is going to collapse."
Why did Huang change his tune? Because Huang could see that Chatgpt's subscriptions were getting slower and slower, resulting in $5 billion in annual losses. The money earned from selling graphics cards couldn't be spent like that anymore—this was wise. During a bull market, we make money quickly, but recklessly spent investments are basically never recovered.
Oracle's stock has already crashed as a warning. They've spent $50 billion building data centers; if OpenAI runs out of money, they won't find customers, and the data centers will become obsolete.
So, this game of money laundering in Silicon Valley has encountered its first "yellow swan."
AI is certainly great, but the bubble is even bigger.
The exception is Google, which is making a lot of money, and GEMINI is becoming increasingly powerful, its prices are decreasing, and its user base is growing.
The following scenarios might be:
Scenario 1: OpenAI goes public, raises funds, surges, then crashes repeatedly, triggering the AI bubble burst.
Then those who see this post go all in on $150 of Google and make a fortune.
Scenario 2: It doesn't even go public; it crashes on the spot.
Scenario 3: It goes public, holds up, the crash lasts a bit longer, but it eventually collapses.