The Crypto Wars Continue to Crash: How Far Will Bitcoin Fall?
Since Donald Trump, who declared himself the "Cryptocurrency President," was elected on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin has given back all its gains.
Even more shockingly, despite MicroStrategy purchasing $30.7 billion worth of Bitcoin since that election, at an average purchase price of approximately $76,000, it is now at a loss.
Since August 2020, the company has accumulated $49.6 billion worth of Bitcoin, but currently has no unrealized profits on this asset, which has long been touted as "only going up."
The losses are not limited to Bitcoin. Bitmine shareholders also face approximately $6.6 billion in unrealized losses. The company purchased $15.4 billion worth of Ethereum at an average price of $3,949, while Ethereum's current trading price has fallen by about 40%.
Investors who relied on Wall Street hype and optimism, rather than market structure, on-chain signals, and technical indicators, are now suffering losses amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars.
In our report released a week ago (click here), we pointed out that Bitcoin's trend model had turned bearish.
Before Kevin Walsh's formal nomination, we also warned that his policy stance could be detrimental to Bitcoin. This view was built upon a report released on December 13, 2025 (click here), which analyzed his past performance and its potential impact on digital assets.
Our market update released on Friday (click here) further reinforced this view, advising traders to maintain a defensive strategy in the face of deteriorating market structure, weakening on-chain metrics, and bearish signals from technical indicators.
In line with this framework, we released another report on Friday (click here), highlighting that key technical support levels were being broken. Since then, Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen by 10% and 15%, respectively.
While we accurately predicted Bitcoin's bottom on October 28, 2022 (see here), well before the data officially bottomed out, the decline had not yet officially begun. We have refined our framework again and positioned this cycle more precisely; we will identify the next turning point when conditions are ripe. But what exactly would be the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin?
