@Nouriel claims that the "end of the world" for cryptocurrencies has arrived.

The impending cryptocurrency doomsday, by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn

Here is Bill Dudley's explanation of why Walsh's argument that balance sheet shrinking creates room for interest rate cuts is incorrect. Walsh seems to lack an understanding of the concept of "sterilization." The nature of the money supply changes with interest rates.

The Crypto Wars Continue to Crash: How Far Will Bitcoin Fall? Since Donald Trump, who declared himself the "Cryptocurrency President," was elected on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin has given back all its gains. Even more shockingly, despite MicroStrategy purchasing $30.7 billion worth of Bitcoin since that election, at an average purchase price of approximately $76,000, it is now at a loss. Since August 2020, the company has accumulated $49.6 billion worth of Bitcoin, but currently has no unrealized profits on this asset, which has long been touted as "only going up." The losses are not limited to Bitcoin. Bitmine shareholders also face approximately $6.6 billion in unrealized losses. The company purchased $15.4 billion worth of Ethereum at an average price of $3,949, while Ethereum's current trading price has fallen by about 40%. Investors who relied on Wall Street hype and optimism, rather than market structure, on-chain signals, and technical indicators, are now suffering losses amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. In our report released a week ago (click here), we pointed out that Bitcoin's trend model had turned bearish. Before Kevin Walsh's formal nomination, we also warned that his policy stance could be detrimental to Bitcoin. This view was built upon a report released on December 13, 2025 (click here), which analyzed his past performance and its potential impact on digital assets. Our market update released on Friday (click here) further reinforced this view, advising traders to maintain a defensive strategy in the face of deteriorating market structure, weakening on-chain metrics, and bearish signals from technical indicators. In line with this framework, we released another report on Friday (click here), highlighting that key technical support levels were being broken. Since then, Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen by 10% and 15%, respectively. While we accurately predicted Bitcoin's bottom on October 28, 2022 (see here), well before the data officially bottomed out, the decline had not yet officially begun. We have refined our framework again and positioned this cycle more precisely; we will identify the next turning point when conditions are ripe. But what exactly would be the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin?

Algorithm signal changes

I'm excited to share with Lee Lockwood a new study on a key policy challenge: How should public finances adjust as artificial intelligence erodes traditional tax revenue sources? The study was published by @BrookingsEcon. 💡

Market Discipline and Technology: Trump's Bad Temper! On April 2, 2025, I pointed out that market discipline would force Trump to back down—from a "Tax Cuts to All" (TALO) to a "Tax Cuts to All" (TACO)—and abandon high tariffs (the previously announced effective rate was 30%). Sure enough, two weeks later, the S&P 500 fell 15%, the Nasdaq fell 20%, bond yields rose 80 basis points, high-yield bond spreads widened by 150 basis points, and the dollar began a freefall. Subsequently, Trump backed down, and now the average tariff is 14%, and it's still decreasing. Now, he's attempting to take a hard line on Greenland, causing bond yields to rise (while ordinary Americans are already suffering from high mortgage rates), the dollar to depreciate (which will lead to increased inflation in the long run), and the stock market to become volatile. Why didn't the astute Bessant tell him all this beforehand, instead threatening Europeans, triggering a global bond sell-off, and pushing US Treasury yields to levels sufficient to trigger more ATI (which Milan and I criticized Yellen's aggressive bond issuance in 2024)? Bessant has doubled or even tripled his bets on ATI, expanded the scope of the policy, and even threatened to directly buy back bonds. They ridiculed Mamdani's foolish "rent freeze" proposal, but government-backed corporate purchases of $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, ATI, freezing credit card rates at 10%, and manipulating the mortgage market—these are four times the amount of Mamdani-style price controls! That's twice the amount of state capitalism! We are becoming like China, not the other way around! Fortunately for the US, market discipline and technology… are also crucial… as is Trump's! Trump controls Congress, his party, the Supreme Court, and even social media (through EM to control Twitter), but he cannot control the markets. Just as Clinton experienced when I was in the White House (as chief economic advisor), Jim Carwell also confirmed that the "vigilante" of bonds (and markets) is the most powerful person in the world, even more powerful than the president!

What happens when a bull market and a bear market collide? Now Roubini is also bullish... what's next? The best answer will receive a one-year free subscription!

Music that survived the Holocaust: @tunkuv interviewed musicologist Francesco Lotoro, who has dedicated the past 40 years to preserving music created in Nazi concentration camps. Writing this article was both heartbreaking and inspiring. via @WSJopinion

I wrote this column last June: "Iran is Heading Towards Regime Collapse," by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn. I hope my prediction is correct!