Let's talk about the market. Looking at the price structure alone, it's definitely not looking good anymore. Unless new variables emerge, further declines remain the more probable path. Personally, I lean towards a significant extreme level for Bitcoin's next move around 58,000, while 60,000-80,000 is more likely to be a period of consolidation and fluctuation, which won't be short-lived. As for Ethereum and other assets, I won't go into analysis. The reality is that when Bitcoin is doing well, these assets aren't necessarily doing much better… and when Bitcoin is doing poorly, things will only get worse. From the current position, unless a major variable emerges that significantly alters the capital structure, for example, a clear shift in gold holdings, with many selling gold and buying Bitcoin… or some truly unexpected positive development that reshapes the market narrative, creating a "one-day wonder" scenario, otherwise, upward movement will be very difficult. To be honest, this bull market itself is quite bad. The structural changes in the crypto market are too drastic. Halving, ETFs, institutional investment, US president's endorsement, compliance pathways… These once highly anticipated positive factors have been largely priced in this round. If a bear market truly arrives, I can't currently find a better expectation to justify continuing to invest at this level. Last time, newcomers could make some money and even network with friends. This time, they've been skinned alive… they play it safe and remain silent. Those still in the market are the most astute. In the past, crypto could generate substantial profits with a high risk-reward ratio, which is why I dared to go almost all-in on crypto, rarely considering other asset allocations. But after this round, one thing has become increasingly clear: when the profit margins of crypto are no longer significantly different from other markets, and the risks are even higher, a more rational and comprehensive diversified allocation will be necessary in the future. It's not that I'm pessimistic about the crypto market, but it's no longer the market with a high "single-track, high-profit win rate" of the past.
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