给大家谈谈接下来怎么做吧 1️⃣ 不需要那么多，5个比特币就够了。以后你会发现，人这一辈子，根本不需要那么多钱。 2️⃣ 比特币本身没有风险。比特币最大的风险在于，你以为有风险，结果没拿住。 3️⃣ 几年后再看比特币的k线，整个2026年就是一条直线而已。 4️⃣ 一个认知，比特币没有庄。有人自以为能坐庄。拉上去出完货，就再也上不了车了。 5️⃣70000的时候看150000算什么本事？70000的时候看30万才是大格局。 6️⃣ 大家都是囤币者，以后投0.01个比特币就像现在投10000聪一样爽。 7️⃣ 机构买比特币不是比特币的利好。比特币被机构买是机构的利好。 8️⃣ 我并不觉得美元会成为比特币的对手，超越美元这样的目标，对比特币来说显得愿景太小。 9️⃣ 未来，你会发现你根本不在乎生活品质，持有比特币在手就是最高生活品质。 #bnb #btc

The Biggest Systemic Risk for Bitcoin: A Deduction of MicroStrategy's "Death Spiral" Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant pullback. If there's a true "life-or-death variable" for BTC, it's almost impossible to ignore MicroStrategy (now Strategy), the world's largest publicly traded company holding Bitcoin. As of now, the company holds approximately 712,600 BTC, with an average holding price of approximately $76,037. What MicroStrategy has built over the past few years is essentially a financial flywheel model highly dependent on market sentiment: Positive Flywheel Logic: 1. Utilizing stock premiums and credit advantages, continuously issuing stocks or bonds to raise funds; 2. Converting all raised funds into Bitcoin, increasing the "BTC content per share"; 3. Increased market expectations, rising stock prices, further widening the premium; 4. Continuing to raise funds and buy more Bitcoin, forming a self-reinforcing cycle. This model is almost perfect in a bull market, but the problem is—once the flywheel reverses, structural risks are amplified exponentially. When the flywheel reverses: How does the death spiral unfold? 1️⃣ Collapsed Expectations When BTC consistently falls below the overall cost range of $76,000, the market begins to reassess MicroStrategy's balance sheet and solvency. The stock price premium will rapidly narrow, and in extreme cases, it may even transform from a "premium asset" into a "discounted instrument." 2️⃣ Frozen Funding Channels A falling stock price means— • Issuing new shares is no longer "cost-effective"; • In a high-interest-rate environment, the cost and risk of continuing to issue bonds increase sharply; Once low-cost financing becomes unavailable, MicroStrategy's "buying engine" will be forced to shut down, and the flywheel logic will directly fail. 3️⃣ Uncontrolled Liquidation Expectations The real systemic risk lies here. Even selling just 1% of its Bitcoin holdings will be interpreted by the market as "whales starting to waver." The likely outcome is: • Institutional investors rushing to sell • Leveraged liquidation • Panic selling by retail investors From a collapse in expectations, it quickly evolves into a liquidity crisis. 4️⃣ Accelerated Negative Feedback MicroStrategy's massive size, initially a "confidence anchor" in bull markets, becomes a Damocles' sword hanging over the market in bear markets. Forced selling of its tokens creates a mutually reinforcing negative feedback loop with market panic, rapidly evaporating its multi-billion dollar leverage built through borrowing and further dragging down Bitcoin's price. ⸻ How Long Can It Hold On? Currently, MicroStrategy still possesses: • The so-called "42/42 funding plan" (raising $84 billion within three years); • Approximately $1.44 billion in cash reserves, theoretically enough to cover about 21 months of expenditure. On paper, it seems safe, but only on one condition: Bitcoin's price must return to the key price range. Otherwise, time is not a friend— Every fluctuation depletes its last buffer. ⸻ Ultimately, there's only one question: Given the current highly suppressed expectation of a "death spiral," are you betting on: • MicroStrategy going out of control first, triggering systemic risk? Or • Bitcoin returning to its upward trend, restarting the flywheel? This isn't a technical question; it's a high-stakes gamble on confidence, liquidity, and time. #bnb #sol #btc

Two bull markets have formed the exact same double top pattern. When this wave reached 120,000, many held the view that the supercycle would only rise and never fall (which allowed me to hold BTC—unlike before, resulting in a 20% loss). Think back to the last bull market when BTC was at 1 million; the view at the beginning of the major cycle was the same. At that time, the most ardent believer in an eternal bull market was Three Arrows Capital—which soon went to zero. The market is currently nearing its bottom; just don't make any rash moves. If there's a correction later, it will likely be around 2% at most, testing the bottom again. February will bring a major market move; that is, the market will bottom out in February, then begin a slow rise, followed by a rapid breakout. Be sure to seize this opportunity and don't get shaken out.

Bitcoin has returned to around 80,000, and judging from the price action, it seems to have bottomed out somewhat. The previous dip was more like a sharp spike, and the market sentiment has largely been released. However, with only one and a half days left in the month, achieving a positive monthly close will be quite difficult. As mentioned before, 78,000, being near the average cost for miners, is still considered my last line of defense. Therefore, in my mind, the 80,000 area is a short-term observation range, while 78,000 is a clear support level. Based on this structure, the current risk-reward ratio is actually quite good. Buying Bitcoin in two tiers around 80,000 offers acceptable overall value. The only thing to be aware of is the uncertainty brought about by the time window. #btc #bnb

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Let's talk about the market. Looking at the price structure alone, it's definitely not looking good anymore. Unless new variables emerge, further declines remain the more probable path. Personally, I lean towards a significant extreme level for Bitcoin's next move around 58,000, while 60,000-80,000 is more likely to be a period of consolidation and fluctuation, which won't be short-lived. As for Ethereum and other assets, I won't go into analysis. The reality is that when Bitcoin is doing well, these assets aren't necessarily doing much better… and when Bitcoin is doing poorly, things will only get worse. From the current position, unless a major variable emerges that significantly alters the capital structure, for example, a clear shift in gold holdings, with many selling gold and buying Bitcoin… or some truly unexpected positive development that reshapes the market narrative, creating a "one-day wonder" scenario, otherwise, upward movement will be very difficult. To be honest, this bull market itself is quite bad. The structural changes in the crypto market are too drastic. Halving, ETFs, institutional investment, US president's endorsement, compliance pathways… These once highly anticipated positive factors have been largely priced in this round. If a bear market truly arrives, I can't currently find a better expectation to justify continuing to invest at this level. Last time, newcomers could make some money and even network with friends. This time, they've been skinned alive… they play it safe and remain silent. Those still in the market are the most astute. In the past, crypto could generate substantial profits with a high risk-reward ratio, which is why I dared to go almost all-in on crypto, rarely considering other asset allocations. But after this round, one thing has become increasingly clear: when the profit margins of crypto are no longer significantly different from other markets, and the risks are even higher, a more rational and comprehensive diversified allocation will be necessary in the future. It's not that I'm pessimistic about the crypto market, but it's no longer the market with a high "single-track, high-profit win rate" of the past.

My assessment of ETH has always been clear. In the next truly trending bull market, Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin is highly probable. From an exchange rate perspective, 0.05 is a crucial dividing line. If Bitcoin reaches 150,000, then Ethereum around 7,500 would be a reasonable range. If Bitcoin falls, Ethereum will almost certainly follow suit; however, once Bitcoin bottoms out and sentiment improves, Ethereum's rebound will be much stronger and more resilient. I prefer to consider the 1383.26 price level as the starting point of this new trend. The current pullback is essentially a technical correction of the main upward wave from 1383 to 4956, and it has already retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. As long as 2620 holds, looking towards 7700+ is entirely reasonable; with a better market sentiment, 8600+ is not out of the question. Of course, if it really breaks new lows, then we should start over; there's no need to stubbornly stick to our opinions. As for why I always say 99%, the reason is simple—there are too many absolute opinions on Twitter. Trading is about leaving yourself room for maneuver. Just like position management, you always need to keep some cash on hand. The overall trend remains bullish on Bitcoin, but once the direction is confirmed, Ethereum will most likely be the most volatile asset in the next market cycle. #ETH

The essence of a meme is an outlet for emotions. We must acknowledge that humans are emotional beings. Therefore, we are always influenced by events and experience emotions. When we have emotions, we always need to find a way to release them. Sometimes it's eating, drinking, traveling… But it can also be buying a meme. However, if you're putting your emotions into buying a meme, you can't be emotional, because this is an investment. So, we need to consider: Is the emotion expressed in this story intense? Is it explosive? Which meme can carry this emotion? How far can this story spread? Will it spread even further? Because not every good story will spread. And if a story does spread, its explosive/infectious power will definitely be very strong. We must pay close attention. Additionally, consider: What is the current emotional value? If this emotion spreads even further, what will its value be? For example, "I'm fucking here!" This is a great story, and it's very easy to spread. Therefore, the J meme on the Sol chain has been pumping in the last few days. However, its reach isn't strong enough; at least, very few people in the Chinese-speaking world are talking about it. The White House retweeted it a few days ago. This is a further spread of sentiment. But Sol's is already very high, and BSC has already seen a surge, and because of Sol's mainstream appeal, it won't rise much further. So, the sentiment has shifted to "I'm fucking here!" But it's just sentiment after all; it'll end after a while. It will rise again. Construction. At least a 100 million market capitalization target.

Changpeng Zhao Makes a Shocking Announcement at Davos: Binance's 300 Million Users Dominate the Global Markets; Will AI Agents Pay Salaries with Cryptocurrency? Beneath the snow-capped mountains of Davos, the flames of blockchain are burning brightly. At the 2026 World Economic Forum, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) once again stepped into the spotlight, making a series of pronouncements that could reshape the financial landscape. The visionary summarized four key points: 1️⃣ 300 Million Users is Just the Beginning: Exchanges Have Become the NYSE of the Digital Age CZ quietly revealed the shocking news: Last year, our trading volume surpassed that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. As of early 2026, Binance's user base is approaching 300 million, equivalent to nearly one-third of the world's cryptocurrency holders. Over the past 16 years, only two business models have been validated at scale—exchanges and stablecoins. They are no longer experiments, but the digital infrastructure supporting global liquidity. 2️⃣ A Payment Revolution Hidden in the Background Regarding cryptocurrency payments, CZ offered an unexpected path: Users no longer need to directly use Bitcoin to buy groceries. Instead, traditional payment methods are used at the front end, while blockchain settlement is handled in the back end. This means that for a cross-border transfer, the user sees their local currency arrive instantly, but the clearing is quietly completed behind the scenes by a crypto network. 3️⃣ The Future of AI Agents: Cryptocurrency is Their "Native Lifeblood" When AI agents autonomously perform tasks and purchase services, the currency they need must be programmable, borderless, and capable of instant settlement—that's cryptocurrency. 4️⃣ Dialogue with Nations: Ten Governments Discuss Asset "Tokenization" CZ revealed that Binance (@binance) has been in discussions with over 10 countries regarding asset tokenization plans. Real estate, government bonds, commodities… trillions of dollars in real-world assets are waiting to be converted into on-chain credentials. The Davos forum was once a temple of traditional economics. Today, @cz_binance stands here, announcing a silent migration: They didn't disappear in 15 years, and they won't in the future. The subtext of this statement might be—what's disappearing are those who still refuse to open their eyes to the world. @BNBCHAIN #BinanceLife #bnb

Whether Binance Life will enter a second phase of its upward trend depends on whether it consolidates sideways or breaks out upwards in the next few days. If these conditions are met, those who bought spot during this wave have a chance to at least touch 0.23, or even 0.28. However, if the rebound is followed by a decline, then sentiment will be amplified, and a further halving due to a stampede is quite possible. Don't say there won't be a stampede, because many people who bought spot during this wave followed the market and bought some, but probably less than 10% managed to take profits. How do newcomers engage in psychological warfare? It's roughly about holding on to small losses, panicking when it breaks down, and continuing to hold on on rebounds? Why not sell on rebounds? Because many people set expectations when they bought in. These expectations might be unrealistic, but they subtly influence you. This is a quote from a book about human nature I read. #BinanceLife