After much back and forth, the price has returned to around 70,000 points! Although the daily chart shows an eight-day winning streak, I've consistently emphasized that this type of consecutive positive days has significant flaws. Firstly, the gains are insufficient; secondly, it's a series of positive days in a weak market, not a strong bull market. In a weak bear market, it can only be defined as a rebound! I'm also very wary of reversal signals, especially when the positive candlesticks turn negative. In fact, this has been the pattern for the past month or so: whenever a consecutive positive day ends with a negative candlestick, the trend is disrupted, not as you might expect (a bear trap or a build-up of momentum for another surge). Historical results have proven that in a weak market, the end of a rebound and the termination of the positive candlesticks often lead to a continued decline. We can assume it won't break the bottom, but you must accept the volatility in a weak market. This is the rule, and the ironclad rule of my technical analysis! Yesterday's decline marked the return of 5000 points from the previous two days' gains, resulting in a series of consecutive negative days on the daily chart. Looking ahead, I believe a period of consolidation is more likely. Even if a breakout occurs, it's not expected to happen this week. Firstly, the numerous doji or small positive candlesticks during the previous consecutive positive days suggest a second correction after the price pullback, with the expected consolidation around 70000 points. Yesterday's daily chart showed weakness, automatically breaking below 73000 without any significant bullish counterattack. Even in the early morning, the price only reached 72000 before encountering further resistance and declining again. Today's main theme is open to both long and short positions, but the primary focus is on a bearish outlook. The highest rebound this morning reached 71500 before the decline began. If there's another rebound, this level is expected to be broken. For a more conservative approach, I believe a decline is likely around 73000, which acts as resistance on the daily chart and is likely to be a support/resistance level for the previous consecutive positive days. Opportunities may be rare, but they are not impossible. The upward position is also easy to judge. Just look around the resistance point that was touched multiple times in the previous period and then fell, and at the key point where the acceleration will come after the breakthrough. That's right, it's the 68500-69000 area. I'm sure you and I have the same expectation. So, without further ado, let's wait for the opportunity to get on board!

Bitcoin has achieved a rare eight-day winning streak. Why is it rare? Regardless of the strength of the chart pattern, the last time an eight-day winning streak occurred was in November 2024, meaning it hadn't happened for the entire year of 2025. And it remains strong; whether it will end today is still unknown! Returning to the previous eight-day winning streak, the difference is that the previous one occurred during an uptrend, while the current one is a rebound within a weak market. There's a significant difference between the two. An uptrend signifies extreme strength, the starting point of a bull market, and continued momentum in an uptrend. A rebound during a downtrend is more about filling gaps, and each high point encounters significant resistance, resulting in insufficient continuation. Therefore, we can clearly see that the eight consecutive days of gains on the daily chart are mostly periods of consolidation! The price broke through 74,000 and continued to rise to 76,000, a point I emphasized yesterday. 73,800 was resistance, while 74,000 was the acceleration point, representing a short-term momentum of 500 points and a daily momentum of over 1,000 points. This was reflected in the daily chart as a continued rebound after the opening this morning, ultimately falling back nearly 2,000 points to around 76,000. The daily chart shows an initial rise followed by a fall, making the upcoming support level a crucial test. If the decline continues, today's positive candlestick will likely be interrupted, and the probability of a renewed downtrend will increase. Remember, in a weak market, top signals indicate that the downward momentum is much stronger than the upward momentum. Since it's a series of consecutive positive candlesticks, the bottom support cannot be broken. Even if it is, it should only be a false break, and the closing price must recover. Even if a large positive candlestick doesn't appear, the positive candlestick pattern shouldn't be interrupted. Today's opening price of around 74,800 is critical; this point will be the battleground between bulls and bears throughout the day! The four-hour chart shows a steady upward trend, but this morning's bearish candlestick will be a crucial indicator. This differs from last night's bearish candlestick, which closed below 74000 and was subsequently suppressed. This morning's candlestick, however, shows a pullback after stabilizing above 74000. The afternoon session is critical. If the bearish candlestick pattern continues, the probability of further gains tonight is low, and the overall chart will likely end with a bearish candlestick. Conversely, if it shows a pattern of initial decline followed by a rise, turning from bearish to bullish, it suggests further highs tonight! After this analysis, we look at key support levels. On the daily chart, the reference point is around 73800, the highest resistance level from the previous few days' rebound. This is currently a minor top-bottom reversal, not a major support level. Of course, if Bitcoin were in an extremely strong uptrend with eight consecutive bullish days, I would go long at this level without hesitation. However, the situation is different, and I believe a more cautious approach is needed. Furthermore, today's pattern of an initial rise followed by a fall further complicates the situation. Conversely, in a scenario of an initial fall, going long is a more logical and prudent approach! To find a solid support level for long positions, we need to pay attention to the starting point. Last night's pullback low was around 73000. This level cannot be broken; if it is, today's candlestick pattern will be weak, and even if there is further upward movement, the momentum will be limited. On the four-hour chart, after the initial break below 74000, watch the low around 72800. The overall trend structure has formed a central oscillation with a pattern of rising lows. Based on the support of the upward trend line, we have finally found a suitable entry point for long positions around 73300. Firstly, the stop-loss risk is easy to control, as it can be set below the previous day's low. Secondly, the profit potential is also good; a basic target of 1000 points is not a major issue. Therefore, considering all factors, I (Lao Xiao) believe this is a reliable and stable approach! Looking at the resistance levels, Lao Xiao's community already arranged a short position at 75800 today, which was the highest point this morning. We were fortunate to profit from the pullback. Going forward, we either need to watch for a downward move around 74800, or wait for the continuation of the upward momentum after a breakout. Based on recent price action and chart patterns, the potential for another breakout is expected to reach around 78000, at which point we can consider shorting for a pullback. As for the other levels, since you've already missed them, there's nothing we can do about it.

Generally, when making money, you use large positions in mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH during periods of high trading volume. A necessary condition for making big profits and rolling over positions is increased trading volume, increased volatility, and sustained volatility. You can't use large positions if any of these three conditions are missing. It's easier to profit from murky waters. When trading volume is low, you can only profit from those who are willing to take losses. For example, those who like to short altcoins, or those who use leverage to increase their positions when volatility decreases in an attempt to achieve the same profits (as seen in stop-loss/take-loss charts). In this situation, you can only reduce your risk exposure and stay calm; otherwise, you'll become one of those people taking losses...

Today I saw many people talking about the "sixth anniversary of March 12th." To be honest, I didn't personally experience it, so I can't say I have any particular emotions. But I've been thinking: even if I had witnessed it firsthand, what is the real meaning of commemorating these dates? Moreover, many people are just following the trend. In recent years, various numerical anniversaries have sprung up: 312, 519, 904, 1011… Everyone seems to remember them all clearly. But if we put that same energy into more important things, like remembering our parents' birthdays, it might be more meaningful. Frankly, I feel that among my male fans, probably more than 60% don't actually know their parents' birthdays.

How to Adjust Your Mindset as a Beginner? First, Before You Have a Stable Profitable Trading System At this stage, you need to learn, practice, summarize, and refine your skills. A crucial point is to keep a trading record. This will help you review your trades, learn from your mistakes, and continuously improve until you develop a consistently profitable trading system. However, never blame your lack of technical skill on your mindset. If you're blaming a bad mindset for a technical issue, you've missed the point and will find it difficult to improve. Of course, it's also important to cultivate a good mindset at this stage; otherwise, it will hinder your continued technical progress. Second, After You Have a Stable Profitable Trading System At this point, many experienced traders might feel they can rest easy, believing that financial freedom is just a matter of time! In reality, the real test is just beginning. If a period of continuous profits changes your mindset, leading to arrogance and the belief that you've finally conquered the market, unexpected disasters often follow. Therefore, even after becoming a seasoned trader, we must strictly adhere to discipline in trading. This is inherently counterintuitive, requiring constant self-cultivation, a balanced mindset, and the avoidance of arrogance and impatience. Only through this can we overcome our limitations and follow the market's rhythm step by step. Furthermore, we must persevere, continuously striving for technical excellence and breaking through our limitations to become long-lasting and resilient traders. Mindset and technique are both crucial and complementary for traders. However, we must understand that at different stages, we must focus our energy on the essentials. Otherwise, we will waste too much energy on detours, slowing our progress. Only with clear goals and targeted actions can we stride confidently forward on the right path!

If you firmly believe in the 4-year bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin, don't waver. When a temporary bottom appears and this rebound reaches the predicted maximum resistance level, you must sell. Don't wait until it reaches 83,000 and then expect it to go up to 88,000, 92,000, or even 100,000. Especially for those who are already holding losses, you must sell once you break even. Don't be tempted by those predicting 150,000. On the evening of February 5th, I posted my outlook on this rebound, predicting that many would consider it a "bull market correction," with significant disagreement between bulls and bears, given that the highest rebound after hitting the bottom would be 23,000 points. #Blockchain#

A new candidate for Federal Reserve Chair emerges, yet BTC surges: Is the market sensing an interest rate cut? The cryptocurrency market was quite lively in the early hours. Bitcoin suddenly surged to $74,050, a new high since February 5th, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also climbed back above $2.538 trillion. Meanwhile, another drama was unfolding in Washington—the White House officially submitted Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve Chair to the Senate. This news immediately triggered market "interpretation mode." Many traders were left with only one question: Does this mean that expectations for an interest rate cut are rising? The conclusion is: the market is still "guessing the plot." After all, the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is not just a matter of position, but a signal of the future direction of monetary policy. In past financial cycles, the market typically made two guesses about the new chair: First: Continuing the current policy. Second: Changing the policy direction. If the new chair leans towards easing, the market will pre-trade "interest rate cut expectations." If leaning towards hawkishness, the market may be more cautious. This recent BTC surge is largely due to funds betting on the macroeconomic narrative in advance. Simply put: the market may not have seen an interest rate cut yet, but it's already fantasizing about one. Adding to this is another piece of news—the US Senate failed to pass a vote to halt Donald Trump's military action against Iran, further escalating uncertainty in the Middle East. Thus, the macro market has formed a peculiar combination: geopolitical tensions, changing policy expectations, and funds seeking new directions. Bitcoin, perfectly suited to capitalize on "macroeconomic sentiment." So, how should one operate at this current level? The market is roughly divided into three camps: Conservatives: Hold and wait for the trend to confirm. Aggressives: Follow the trend and bet on a breakout. Experienced players: Wait for a pullback before entering. Because every round of price increases follows a classic pattern: when prices rise, everyone wants to buy; when prices fall, no one dares to buy. So the real key question is: If BTC returns to around 72,000, would you still dare to buy? Share your strategy in the comments section.

Bitcoin's 74,000 is not the end. Short-term traders should be cautious with risk management when shorting at higher levels, exiting positions promptly and avoiding a long-term perspective. This month's strategy is primarily long positions with short positions as a secondary approach, 80% long and 20% short. I've identified the "top" of the rebound after the bottom at 59,800, which I believe is around 83,300. Long positions should keep an eye on this. If it surges to 80,000, be wary of a potential pullback. Only a firm hold above 83,300 can confirm a preliminary trend reversal. A firm hold above 86,800 would be a secondary confirmation of the trend reversal signal. This is a crucial turning point for the future direction. If it turns downwards from here, a new downward wave is clearly defined. ETH's rebound top is between 2550 and 2626. Be wary of a potential pullback after reaching this level. SOL's rebound top is between 104 and 106. Be wary of a potential pullback after reaching this level. Whether it can push higher remains to be seen after reaching these levels. Tonight's Fed report will be released late, and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data will be released. Don't chase the market above 72,000. A pullback to 71,400-70,850 or lower would be a good entry point. 69,000 has become support. The bulls' defensive base has moved up from 65,000 a couple of days ago to 69,000. This opens up 4,000 points of upside potential. If it pushes another 4,000 points to around 78,000, the defensive base will move up to 73,000. This is the short-term defensive strategy. Ignore the smaller levels of 75,750 and 76,800. When the daily chart shows a pullback to the 3- or 5-day moving average, the upward momentum is stronger than that of the 1- or 2-day moving average. Targets for long positions should only be the larger price levels.

The most interesting aspect of financial markets is that they often don't follow "common sense logic" (i.e., where there's conflict, there's a fall), but rather "market capitalization logic" or "liquidity logic." We're used to understanding the world through news logic: Iran attacked → Middle East instability → increased global risk → stock market decline. But professional investors value structural logic more: • Profit-taking pressure: Where profits are highest, that's where the easiest "ATM" to withdraw from. • Leverage effect: The more crowded the long positions, the more severe the chain reaction when stop-loss orders are triggered. • Liquidity premium: The South Korean stock market has excellent liquidity among global emerging markets and has recently seen the most significant gains. When global institutions need to cash out and hedge, they prioritize selling what they can "sell," rather than what they "should sell."

During bull market pullbacks, remember one thing: hold, hold, and hold! Be patient, patient, and patient again. Don't overthink it. 1️⃣ A typical bull-bear cycle is about four years. 2️⃣ Long-term holding is the most effective way to make big money. Ideally, you should buy in at the beginning of a bull market, or at the low point of a pullback between the first and second phases. 3️⃣ Currently undervalued high-performing coins will eventually see a significant surge; it's just a matter of time. 4️⃣ Most people's biggest regret about their coins during a bull market is not failing to buy them, but rather not holding on to them! 5️⃣ Don't focus solely on making money. Profits often happen in an instant. Many coins may oscillate for a long time before rising, but once they do, they can surge several times over. Therefore, in a bull market, focus on the result, not the process. The ups and downs during the process will undoubtedly cause anxiety, but as long as we ultimately achieve the desired result, it's a good and correct operation!