1. Upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting and Fed Rate Cut Data The market is closely watching the Fed's moves next week. CME FedWatch data shows an 89% probability of an 0.25% rate cut, which would bring rates closer to the Fed's initial year-end target. The rate cut itself is expected—its impact depends primarily on Powell's guidance on future rate cuts and the updated 2026 projections. 2. Key Labor Market Information - Employment declined slightly; the unemployment rate is 4.4%. - Businesses avoided layoffs but adopted measures such as hiring freezes, hiring only replacements, and natural attrition. - The job market is more challenging for job seekers with less experience. - Wage increases were larger in manufacturing, construction, and healthcare. - ADP employment data: 32,000 jobs were lost in November (120,000 from small businesses and 90,000 from medium and large businesses). - Initial jobless claims were 191,000, the lowest level in three years. - 71,000 jobs were laid off in November. Year-to-date trading volume is 1.17 million coins, a 54% year-on-year increase. 3. Predicting Market Reaction Fed Rate Cut + End of Quantitative Tightening = Excellent Opportunity A 0.25% rate cut on December 10 will drive liquidity back to risk assets, with cryptocurrencies reacting most quickly. Declining yields, a weaker dollar, and the end of quantitative tightening will drive funds towards Bitcoin, Ethereum, and high-beta altcoins. Powell's guidance will determine the magnitude of market volatility, but the direction is already clear.