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4️⃣ Liquidity and Outlook The Global Liquidity Index and the US Dollar Index are trading sideways, hindering the flow of major risk-on funds. Until liquidity expands, risk assets will remain subdued. ▫️Short-term: Gold dominance = risk aversion ▫️Medium-term: Fed easing = BTC's next wave of gains ▫️Long-term: US debt and depreciating fiat currencies = bullish for Bitcoin and Ethereum 💥

3️⃣ Bitcoin's Contrarian Reaction BTC tends to rise when gold prices cool and pull back when they break out—a pattern seen in 2020, 2024, and now. Bitcoin, priced in gold, is currently oversold at >2σ, a level that historically marks major macroeconomic bottoms.

Market Impact: • Stocks: Yields fall, growth and AI stocks lead the way • Metals: Real interest rates fall, gold and silver shine • Cryptocurrencies: Liquidity surge → BTC front-runners • Bonds: Curve steepens, reflation trade takes shape The labor market is stagnant, but liquidity is recovering. This is how the market quietly flips. ⚙️

The Fed's decision is a foregone conclusion. A weak labor market means a rate cut is a foregone conclusion. Current: 4.25% October 29th: 96% probability → 4.0% December 10th: 86% probability → 3.75% Key takeaway: Economic growth is outpacing inflation. Powell's term ends in May 2026, and the market expects the new chair, likely appointed by Trump, to take a more dovish Fed stance.

What's the reason for the cuts? ▫️Government Efficiency - 293,000, Downstream +20,000 ▫️Economic Restructuring - 300,000 ▫️Artificial Intelligence - 17,375 ▫️Tariffs - 5,847

ADP (September): Private sector layoffs reached 32,000, the worst in 2.5 years. Challenger Report: 946,000 layoffs so far in 2025, a 55% year-over-year increase and the highest level since 2020. Layoffs could exceed 1 million by year-end. Historically, layoffs of this magnitude have been associated with economic recessions or major technological transitions (e.g., artificial intelligence).

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6/ What would happen if Trump imposed Fed policy? ➡️ Sharp interest rate cuts ➡️ Accelerated money printing (quantitative easing) ➡️ Inflationary pressures ➡️ Rising asset prices ➡️ Accelerated de-dollarization

5/ Behind the scenes, Trump is reshaping the Federal Reserve: Voting member Adrienne Kugler resigned (August 8) Trump installed his advisor, Steven Moran, in her place (confirmed September 15). Moran immediately pushed for a further rate cut (0.5%). Trump also attempted to remove Lisa Cook (Biden's nominee) over allegations of mortgage fraud. The courts blocked that move, and now the Supreme Court will intervene.