1. Upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting and Fed Rate Cut Data
The market is closely watching the Fed's moves next week.
CME FedWatch data shows an 89% probability of an 0.25% rate cut, which would bring rates closer to the Fed's initial year-end target.
The rate cut itself is expected—its impact depends primarily on Powell's guidance on future rate cuts and the updated 2026 projections.
2. Key Labor Market Information
- Employment declined slightly; the unemployment rate is 4.4%.
- Businesses avoided layoffs but adopted measures such as hiring freezes, hiring only replacements, and natural attrition.
- The job market is more challenging for job seekers with less experience.
- Wage increases were larger in manufacturing, construction, and healthcare.
- ADP employment data: 32,000 jobs were lost in November (120,000 from small businesses and 90,000 from medium and large businesses).
- Initial jobless claims were 191,000, the lowest level in three years.
- 71,000 jobs were laid off in November. Year-to-date trading volume is 1.17 million coins, a 54% year-on-year increase.
3. Predicting Market Reaction
Fed Rate Cut + End of Quantitative Tightening = Excellent Opportunity
A 0.25% rate cut on December 10 will drive liquidity back to risk assets, with cryptocurrencies reacting most quickly. Declining yields, a weaker dollar, and the end of quantitative tightening will drive funds towards Bitcoin, Ethereum, and high-beta altcoins.
Powell's guidance will determine the magnitude of market volatility, but the direction is already clear.
