Somewhat bullish
┈┈➤Kezhou: Every rally is a pullback
Since October, there have been large bullish candlesticks, including October 1st, Monday, October 6th, and Monday, October 13th.
BTC briefly reached 108k at the time of posting.
┈┈➤Industry Insider: Stablecoin Increased Issuance
On October 19th, at 8:27 AM, 1 billion USDT was issued on Ethereum four hours ago.
The increase in USDT issuance may indicate increased market demand.
It is also a possible signal of an upward trend.
┈┈➤US Stocks: Likely to Exceed Expectations
Some US-listed companies have released their third-quarter earnings reports.
Currently, 81 US-listed companies have released their earnings reports, including:
64 companies performed better than expected, with the highest EPS exceeding expectations by 400%.
16 companies performed worse than expected, with the worst EPS falling short by -950%.
The average EPS of these 81 companies exceeded expectations by 16.22%.
┈┈➤ Macroeconomics: Temporarily stable, with some uncertainty
An interest rate cut on October 30th is certain.
Trump said he would meet with senior officials from the University of Tokyo within two weeks. The University of Tokyo has generally remained rational and has not changed its policy, so the likelihood of Trump changing his mind next week is low.
The two sides will likely meet at the APEC summit in South Korea from October 30th to November 1st.
It seems the University of Tokyo is showing great sincerity in the negotiations and acting rationally.
Although Trump wants to sanction the University of Tokyo, the following applies:
First, from the perspective of the University of Tokyo, it does have some leverage.
Second, from the US perspective, import tariffs are too high, which is not good news for US prices. The US-China trade war is also bearish for US stocks, and Trump is still under some pressure.
Third, from a fiscal perspective, Trump has already collected over $40 billion in additional tariffs for the US federal government by the end of September this year. Therefore, any further concessions on tariffs will not hurt the US. Fourth, from a political perspective, whether the US wants to sanction the University of Tokyo or relocate manufacturing, neither is likely to happen during Trump's term.
So, overall, the likelihood of a breakdown in the talks seems low. Of course, this remains uncertain.