Gold is becoming like Bitcoin, Bitcoin is becoming like the US stock market, The US stock market is becoming like altcoins, Altcoins have been burned...

Only one month into 2025, and it feels like all the pitfalls of past bear markets have already exploded? The liquidation of leveraged market makers in 2011, similar to the Luna crash and Three Arrows bankruptcy in mid-2022, is essentially a deleveraging process driven by insufficient liquidity. The exchange battles are somewhat reminiscent of the BCH fork at the end of 2018, a hash power war. The BTC monthly RSI has fallen to 48 (temporarily, with 5 hours left before closing), equivalent to levels seen in October 2014, October-November 2018, and May 2022. While clinging to outdated methods is futile, the consensus of a four-year cycle and market expectations for bull and bear markets can lead to earlier-than-expected bull market tops and bear market bottoms, including various crisis events.

Go in more, whatever!

There aren't that many reasons for the decline! It's simply due to insufficient liquidity! On March 12, 2020, BTC's market capitalization accounted for only 0.91% of US M2, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization accounted for only 1.4% of US M2. On May 19, 2021, BTC's market capitalization accounted for 3.92% of US M2, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization accounted for 10.38% of US M2. By October 11, 2025, BTC's market capitalization accounted for 10.16% of US M2, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization accounted for 17.27% of US M2. At this point, cryptocurrencies are extremely dependent on and sensitive to macro liquidity! Therefore, Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff increase on October 10th caused a collapse in the crypto market. Even a strong stock market like the US stock market will see its total market capitalization/M2 ratio reach a peak in October 2025, similar to the peak in 2000, before declining in November. Because the M2 annual growth rate is a direct reflection of market liquidity, cryptocurrencies are more strongly correlated with the M2 annual growth rate. However, the overall M2 annual growth rate in 2025 is at a historically low level, and in October 2025, the growth rate is close to zero, even beginning to decline in November.

Beware of the risk of a gold price correction! ┈┈➤ Technical Analysis Shows Gold is Overbought While technical analysis can be ineffective for assets like gold, the monthly RSI is 95.6, the weekly RSI is 82.8, and the daily RSI is 88.5, all indicating overbought conditions. The monthly overbought level is likely the highest in 55 years. ┈┈➤ History is Strikingly Similar First, comparing historical data on a logarithmic scale, the current situation is somewhat similar to that before Reagan took office in 1979. Second, the US economy experienced stagflation then; now, the CPI is relatively high. Third, back then it was the Iranian hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution, the pro-American Prince Pahlavi was overthrown and exiled, and Iranian students stormed the US embassy, taking diplomats hostage and demanding the release of Pahlavi). Now, there is internal turmoil in Iran, with the US exerting military pressure and the possibility of war not ruled out. Fourth, even many of Trump's actions, including the MAGA slogan, bear some resemblance to Reagan's when he took office in 1980. ┈┈➤ In Conclusion By comparing technical analysis and historical events, gold may continue to rise as the US-Iran conflict escalates. However, most of Trump's actions this year have been swift and decisive, raising concerns about a sudden reversal in the US-Iran situation (such as Iran suddenly surrendering). After the conflict subsides, be wary of a gold price correction. From January to September 1980, gold declined before rebounding, then fell continuously for nearly two years from September 1980 to June 1982. It didn't return to its initial high until 2007-2008. Short selling is not recommended in the short term. The US government may enter a short-term shutdown on January 31st, and the US-Iran situation remains unresolved. However, chasing the rally requires caution! It's not that buying is impossible, but it's advisable to be highly sensitive and closely monitor the US-Iran situation. (Note that Figure 1 is on logarithmic scales, while Figure 2 is on linear scales. The monthly upward trend of gold and the peak of Bitcoin's bull market are somewhat similar.)

Why call something as noble as playing meme "beating a dog"? Throwing a meat bun to a dog—it's gone forever. That's so unlucky! 😂

This should be good news! US consumer confidence declined again in January! Following three consecutive rate cuts in Q4 of last year, consumer confidence fell significantly in January, and was significantly lower than expected. Given this, the January CPI is highly unlikely to rise, and may even decline. The January CPI data, released on February 11th, could be positive. The weak job market, coupled with the CPI's failure to rebound after the rate cuts and its potential decline, reduces the obstacles for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Of course, a rate cut in January is unlikely, and the probability of a rate cut in March or April is low, but not entirely hopeless.

I'm betting the US government won't shut down again on January 31st. $60 for a small bet, just for fun.

The impact on the US and Europe is beginning to ease! But don't get too excited yet. As previously analyzed, negotiations have begun. Actually, Trump never intended to acquire Greenland. Denmark would never agree, and Europe is not to be trifled with; he knew this all along. Trump has always hidden his true motives in exaggerated statements, like his threat to impose 100% tariffs on China. This potential landmine can probably be ruled out for now. It's highly unlikely the negotiations will break down, because what Trump wants is rare earth mining in Greenland, not war. Additionally, there's a small chance we should pay attention to Greenland's military significance. The shortest path (great circle) for Russian missiles to reach the US passes right over Greenland. Therefore, if Russia launches a missile at the US, it could be intercepted in Greenland. So the US might want more control over Greenland, and there might be some controversy in this regard. The distribution of the value of the rare earth elements alone is unlikely to be a major point of contention.

Vitalik Buterin proposed native DVT (Distributed Validator Technology) in the Ethereum Research forum, suggesting that DVT be directly implemented into the Ethereum staking protocol layer. $SSV rose 14% in the last 24 hours. $SSV itself showed some early signs of a rounded bottom. A significant increase in volume was observed after January 20th.