#daily @GreeksLive English Community Daily Brief
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Published: 2025-10-08
Overall Market Sentiment
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The community is showing near-term bearish sentiment, anticipating a downtrend, with particular focus on ETH dropping to 4200-4300 and BTC testing 116-118k. However, a clear divide exists between short-term bearish traders and long-term bullish holders, sparking debate over whether declining BTC volatility and institutionalization signal maturity or weakness.
Bitcoin Volatility Suppression and Structural Market Changes
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• A widespread debate has emerged regarding BTC losing its unique upside volatility characteristics since the launch of IBIT options, with the asset now behaving more like traditional equities, with rising prices but compressed volatility.
• The argument argues that BTC's compound annual growth rate since its 2021 peak has been only 10%, underperforming many traditional assets year-to-date, including French and UK ETFs. This is the first time in history that holding BTC has a significant opportunity cost.
• The counter-argument emphasizes expanding the timeframe beyond short-term performance, comparing BTC's programmatic scarcity to gold's decade-long consolidation around $2,000 (followed by its recent breakout), and arguing that institutionalization will not alter its long-term trajectory, driven by design and inevitable money printing, to over $1 million.