Due to Congress's failure to approve funding for fiscal year 2026, the US federal government declared #Shutdown2025 at midnight on September 30th, the first such event since 2018-2019. This partial shutdown affected non-essential operations, furloughed approximately 800,000 employees, and delayed the release of economic data, including the October jobs report. Some thoughts on financial markets: Expect volatility and risk aversion in the short term as investors await clarity, with stocks potentially falling by 0.5-1% initially. US Treasury yields could rise due to trading complications caused by missing Federal Reserve data, a slowdown in IPOs, and a reduction in SEC staff (to approximately 9%). A prolonged shutdown could reduce quarterly GDP growth by 0.1-0.2%. For cryptocurrencies: Heightened uncertainty could lead to price declines for #Bitcoin and #Ethereum (e.g., 2-5%), delay the SEC/CFTC's review of spot ETFs (such as #Solana), and stall market structure legislation in Congress. Trading volumes may surge on panic, but historical precedent suggests that if resolved quickly, long-term damage will be minimal.
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