Analysis of Bitcoin's New Round of Rally: Driven by Dual Factors of Seasonality and Debt Expansion According to the Matrixport Weekly Report, after reviewing the historical patterns of Ethereum funding rates and futures open interest, despite continued positive news for Ethereum, its funding rate has only risen to 15%, failing to fully reflect market enthusiasm. The report concludes that Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after breaking through its $116,000 target price in July, largely consistent with previous forecasts. The report emphasizes that this round of gains lacks support from retail investor sentiment and futures speculation. With volatility retreating and consolidation emerging, and the historical trend of August and September being weaker months of the year, coupled with diminished expectations of a rate cut following the recent FOMC meeting and a lack of new policy catalysts in the near term, the market may turn cautious and enter a one- to two-month consolidation period. The report states that its constructed Bitcoin seasonality model has closely aligned with market trends over the past five months. After performing below expectations in February, the model's fit has significantly improved since March, with the predicted 9.1% increase for July nearly matching the actual 9.8% increase. The report notes that Bitcoin's 2025 performance broke the previous pattern of a strong fourth quarter followed by a January correction, largely driven by market expectations of Trump's crypto-friendly policies. Furthermore, as Washington enters its summer recess, market focus will temporarily shift, and history shows that fiscal uncertainty is often the core driving force behind the rise of these hard assets. The report ultimately reveals that while "US Crypto Week" and institutional buying have garnered significant attention, the core catalyst driving this round of Bitcoin's price appreciation is Trump's proposed $5 trillion debt ceiling expansion plan. The approval of this plan caused a surge in the US Treasury debt, and Bitcoin's breakthrough occurred precisely after the policy was implemented. In short, Bitcoin's current market dynamics are closely intertwined with the macroeconomic environment. Both the validation of the seasonality model and the emergence of the debt ceiling expansion plan as a core catalyst reveal the underlying logic behind Bitcoin's price movements. While the market may enter a period of consolidation in the short term due to a lack of new catalysts, macroeconomic factors such as fiscal uncertainty will continue to be key influencing its performance in the long term. Understanding these drivers is crucial to understanding the market's pulse. #Bitcoin #MarketTrends #DebtCeiling