The proportion of BTC supply in a loss-making state is increasing, with $105,000 becoming a key support level. According to an analysis post by Sentora using on-chain data, approximately 7.9% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently in a loss-making state, indicating a significant accumulation of holdings between $121,000 and the current price range. Analysts predict that if the market corrects further, the $105,000 area could become a key support level. This assessment is based on historical on-chain data showing that approximately 900,000 Bitcoins (approximately 4.5% of the total circulating supply) have formed a concentrated trading area around this price. Simply put, the current Bitcoin market exhibits several key characteristics worthy of investor attention. First, 7.9% of the circulating supply is in a loss-making state, approaching the warning level for a short-term correction. Historical experience shows that when the proportion of loss-making holdings exceeds 15%, the market tends to face greater downward pressure. Secondly, a cost structure analysis reveals that a significant amount of profit-taking has accumulated above $121,000. Any loosening of these holdings could lead to additional selling pressure. Meanwhile, a clear "value trough" has formed below $105,000. Due to the significant buying demand accumulated in this area previously, it may serve as a key support point. This market structure is quite similar to the situation in the fourth quarter of 2024, when the $100,000 price support area successfully withstood three rounds of selling pressure and demonstrated strong market support. This historical reference provides a valuable reference for our current market analysis. In summary, this chip structure distribution pattern indicates that the $105,000 area has become a key technical defense for Bitcoin. A price correction to this area could attract new capital to absorb the selling pressure, thereby forming effective price support. However, it should be noted that in extreme market conditions, support levels can be temporarily broken, and investors still need to consider real-time trading volume and market sentiment. Do you think the $105,000 support level can hold effectively in the current market environment? With nearly 8% of Bitcoin holdings currently losing money, do you view this as a buying opportunity or a risk signal? #BitcoinSupportLevel #ChipsDistribution #LossRatio

Analysis of Bitcoin's New Round of Rally: Driven by Dual Factors of Seasonality and Debt Expansion According to the Matrixport Weekly Report, after reviewing the historical patterns of Ethereum funding rates and futures open interest, despite continued positive news for Ethereum, its funding rate has only risen to 15%, failing to fully reflect market enthusiasm. The report concludes that Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after breaking through its $116,000 target price in July, largely consistent with previous forecasts. The report emphasizes that this round of gains lacks support from retail investor sentiment and futures speculation. With volatility retreating and consolidation emerging, and the historical trend of August and September being weaker months of the year, coupled with diminished expectations of a rate cut following the recent FOMC meeting and a lack of new policy catalysts in the near term, the market may turn cautious and enter a one- to two-month consolidation period. The report states that its constructed Bitcoin seasonality model has closely aligned with market trends over the past five months. After performing below expectations in February, the model's fit has significantly improved since March, with the predicted 9.1% increase for July nearly matching the actual 9.8% increase. The report notes that Bitcoin's 2025 performance broke the previous pattern of a strong fourth quarter followed by a January correction, largely driven by market expectations of Trump's crypto-friendly policies. Furthermore, as Washington enters its summer recess, market focus will temporarily shift, and history shows that fiscal uncertainty is often the core driving force behind the rise of these hard assets. The report ultimately reveals that while "US Crypto Week" and institutional buying have garnered significant attention, the core catalyst driving this round of Bitcoin's price appreciation is Trump's proposed $5 trillion debt ceiling expansion plan. The approval of this plan caused a surge in the US Treasury debt, and Bitcoin's breakthrough occurred precisely after the policy was implemented. In short, Bitcoin's current market dynamics are closely intertwined with the macroeconomic environment. Both the validation of the seasonality model and the emergence of the debt ceiling expansion plan as a core catalyst reveal the underlying logic behind Bitcoin's price movements. While the market may enter a period of consolidation in the short term due to a lack of new catalysts, macroeconomic factors such as fiscal uncertainty will continue to be key influencing its performance in the long term. Understanding these drivers is crucial to understanding the market's pulse. #Bitcoin #MarketTrends #DebtCeiling

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $115 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows for the 20th consecutive day. According to SoSoValue data, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of nearly $115 million yesterday, marking their first day of net outflows after five consecutive days of net inflows. Among them, the Ark & 21shares Bitcoin Spot ETF (ARKB) led the outflow list with a single-day net outflow of $89.92 million, bringing ARKB's cumulative net inflows to $2.71 billion. Second was the Fidelity Bitcoin Spot ETF (FBTC), which saw a single-day net outflow of $53.63 million, bringing FBTC's cumulative net inflows to $12.41 billion. GrayScale's Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) saw a single-day net outflow of $9.18 million, bringing FBTC's cumulative net outflows to $23.64 billion. Notably, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) saw a net inflow of $18.62 million yesterday, bringing its cumulative net inflow to $57.6 billion. Franklin's EZBZ, Grayscale's BTC, Invesco's BTCO, and VanEck's HODL saw net inflows of $6.78 million, $5.69 million, $3.49 million, and $3.31 million, respectively, on a single day. As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $152.01 billion, accounting for 6.56% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $54.99 billion. On the same day, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of nearly $17 million, marking its 20th consecutive day of net inflows. Among them, BlackRock's Ethereum spot ETF, ETHA, saw a net inflow of $18.18 million yesterday, bringing ETHA's cumulative net inflow to $9.74 billion. Fidelity's FETH and Grayscale's ETHE saw net inflows of $5.62 million and $6.8 million, respectively, on a single day. As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $21.52 billion, accounting for 4.77% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $9.64 billion. #BitcoinETF #EthereumETF #ETFFundFlow

Trump Signs Executive Order: 67 Countries Face Tariffs Ranging from 15% to 41%, New Tariffs Delayed to August 7 On August 1, US President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods imported from 67 trading partners, marking the highest US tariff levels in over a century. Reports indicate that the implementation of the new tariffs was postponed from the original August 1 to August 7, giving countries a final window for negotiations. The White House explained that the one-week delay was intended to coordinate the new tariff list and provide additional negotiating opportunities for countries that had not yet reached an agreement. The new tariffs cover differentiated rates ranging from 15% to 41%. Countries like Switzerland, Syria, and Canada have higher rates, at 39%, 41%, and 35%, respectively, while negotiating partners like Japan, South Korea, and the European Union have lower rates, ranging from 15% to 37%. However, some countries have also received reductions or extensions due to negotiations. Mexico was granted a 90-day reprieve, while tariffs for countries that have reached agreements, such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea, are lower than initially threatened. Notably, the US-China tariff truce extends until August 12, with both sides continuing discussions under an independent negotiation framework. Market analysts warn that if no breakthrough is achieved before August 7, global supply chains could face further disruptions. The Trump administration has hailed this move as a "historic new trade system," but economists worry that high tariffs could push up US inflation by 0.5%-0.7% and accelerate the restructuring of global supply chains. As the August 7 deadline approaches, countries that haven't reached an agreement may face a more challenging trade environment. This policy shift also reflects the US's strategic intent to reshape the global trade landscape. #TrumpTariffs

As the Tornado Cash case nears its conclusion, the Department of Justice issued a rare clarification that the venture capital firm is not a target of the investigation. As the criminal case against Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm nears its conclusion, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) issued an unusual clarification in court. U.S. Attorney Nathan Rehn stated that the allegations against Dragonfly and its executives, as well as related media reports, are inaccurate and misleading. According to Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi, U.S. Attorney Nathan Rehn stated in court on July 28 that the crypto venture capital firm and its principals are not targets of the investigation. This statement came as a relief to Dragonfly, which had been under pressure for its 2020 investment in Tornado Cash. In fact, Dragonfly had conducted a compliance assessment before the investment to ensure that the firm complied with U.S. FinCEN's anti-money laundering regulations. Meanwhile, Roman Storm, co-founder of Tornado Cash, is now accused of laundering over $1 billion and violating US sanctions against the North Korean hacker group Lazarus, stemming from his 2019 release of an open-source cryptocurrency privacy protocol. Since opening in Manhattan federal court on July 14th, the trial has entered a critical phase, with blockchain analysts and former platform users testifying. Prosecutors are attempting to prove Storm actively participated in reviewing illegal transactions, while the defense, citing the principle of "code neutrality," argues that developers should not be held responsible for how the protocol is used. The market is currently focused on the potential precedent set by the final verdict in this case for determining open-source developer liability. If convicted on all charges, Storm faces up to 45 years in prison. The DOJ's rare clarification is noteworthy. Publicly excluding specific institutions from suspicion in court is unconventional, as the Department of Justice typically remains silent on the subjects of its investigations. This statement appears intended to prevent the case from impacting the venture capital industry and to refocus attention on the Storm case. With closing arguments approaching, the verdict in this case will not only determine his personal fate but also serve as a bellwether for how open source software liability is viewed in the United States. As Qureshi stated, "The outcome will have profound implications for the future of privacy and open source innovation." #TornadoCashTrial #RomanStormCase #DragonflyClarification

#Ethereum10: Outlook: From Technological Experiment to Transformation of Global Economic Infrastructure Ethereum celebrates its tenth anniversary, marking a new historical turning point for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Looking back over the past decade, ETH has evolved amidst controversy and innovation, from its initial proof-of-work mechanism to its current proof-of-stake model, from the DAO fork to the NFT craze. Ethereum has a clear roadmap for technological upgrades. It will focus on two major upgrades, Fusaka and Glamsterdam, scheduled for implementation in November of this year and 2026, respectively. These upgrades will significantly improve the network's data processing efficiency and user experience. In addition, Consensys announced that Ethereum's Layer-1 capacity will achieve a tenfold expansion within the next 12 months, while also achieving breakthrough interoperability for Layer-2 solutions. From a business application perspective, Ethereum is driving on-chain throughput, institutional adoption, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). Max Shannon of Bitwise predicts that Ethereum will upgrade from a Verkle tree state to full danksharding, completely streamlining network processes and significantly lowering the barrier to node operation. Hart Lambur, co-founder of Risk Labs, even foresees that most assets will be tokenized on Ethereum, making it the "value settlement layer of the internet." The Ethereum community has long been preparing for the potential threat of quantum computing. Vitalik Buterin proposed cryptographic improvements as early as 2024, and research on quantum-resistant cryptography is still ongoing. ConsenSys states that Ethereum is an industry leader in addressing these challenges. Puffer Labs co-founder Amir Forouzani even boldly predicts that as user experience improves and platform advantages become apparent, Ethereum's security defenses may eventually surpass Bitcoin's. In summary, from idealism to practical application, from technical experimentation to economic infrastructure, Ethereum's next decade may see blockchain technology truly enter the mainstream. As Linehan stated, when the world works together to build this open system, its power will be beyond imagination. In this settlement network that connects everything, Ethereum may become "boring", but it is this "boring" that may mark the beginning of its true maturity.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows for the fifth consecutive day, while Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows for the 19th consecutive day. According to SoSoValue data, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $47.04 million yesterday, marking their fifth consecutive day of net inflows. BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) led the list with a net inflow of $34.37 million yesterday, bringing IBIT's cumulative net inflows to $57.58 billion. The next highest was the Bitwise Bitcoin spot ETF (BITB), which saw a net inflow of $12.66 million yesterday and has now seen a net inflow of $230,000. As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $151.36 billion, accounting for 6.49% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $55.11 billion. On the same day, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a 19-day streak of net inflows, with a total daily net inflow of nearly $5.79 million. Of these, BlackRock's Ethereum spot ETF (ETHA) saw a net inflow of $20.29 million yesterday, bringing ETHA's cumulative net inflow to $9.72 billion. GrayScale's Ethereum spot ETF (ETHE) saw a net inflow of $7.77 million, bringing ETHE's cumulative net outflow to $4.3 billion. Fidelity's FETH, on the other hand, saw a net outflow of $22.77 million, bringing FETH's cumulative net inflow to $2.27 billion. As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $21.43 billion, accounting for 4.71% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $9.62 billion. In summary, while BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA continue to lead in daily net inflows, overall net inflows are declining, potentially signaling a cooling of market enthusiasm for these products or a cautious wait-and-see approach by investors. #BitcoinETF #EthereumETF #ETFFlows

Analysts: The BTC market is about to cool, but the correction may be limited. According to CryptoQuant analysis, the current market overheating is both less intense and less prolonged than previous corrections, suggesting that Bitcoin's correction may be relatively limited. The agency predicts a brief market cooling, with Bitcoin likely facing only short-term, small declines in the near term, which is seen as part of a healthy cycle. Observing Bitcoin's realized value and UTXO distribution over a one-day to one-week period, the intensity and duration of the current market correction are significantly weaker than the more intense and prolonged overheating period in 2024 and early 2025. Therefore, analysts expect this price correction to be brief and limited. Analyst Axel Adler also observed that when Bitcoin reached $118,000, some long-term holders (LTH) began selling, and this trend is likely to intensify as the price rises. This pattern mirrors the cyclical price increases seen since the fall of 2024, when BTC prices rose from $65,000 to $100,000. Meanwhile, macroeconomic uncertainty is also impacting the market. Matrixport warns that key macroeconomic events, such as the Federal Reserve's decision and the White House report on digital assets, may temporarily curb BTC's upward momentum. While the long-term bullish momentum remains, the historical weakness in August and September could trigger short-term profit-taking and sideways trading. Amidst the market's temporary cooling, Bitcoin Vector also posted that Bitcoin is testing key resistance levels. While the overall structure remains bullish, upward momentum is somewhat lacking. A confirmed break above $120,500 would confirm the continuation of the upward trend, while $112,500 represents key support on the downside. Therefore, as long as BTC can maintain within this price range, a pullback could present an opportunity to enter the market. In summary, while the current market shows some signs of overheating, the overall correction is expected to be relatively mild. Investors should closely monitor market developments and consider the impact of external macroeconomic factors to rationally plan their investment strategies. What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's current correction? Do you believe it will be as mild as analysts predict, or will it lead to greater volatility? Leave your comments in the comments section! #BitcoinMarket #Cryptocurrency #MarketAdjustment #Macroeconomy

White House Releases Digital Asset Strategy Report; Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates on Hold for Fifth Consecutive Period On July 31st, the White House released its long-awaited digital asset report this morning, a national strategy aimed at strengthening the United States' global leadership in blockchain, cryptocurrency, and tokenized finance. Led by the White House's cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence director, the 166-page document integrates input from the Treasury, Commerce, SEC, and CFTC, and offers numerous recommendations for streamlining regulation, supporting innovation, and modernizing regulations. While the report covers a wide range of digital asset policy areas, it does not provide a substantive update on the government's planned Bitcoin reserve, merely reiterating the language in President Trump's January executive order without outlining next steps or a timeline for implementation. The report also emphasizes the need to improve the regulatory system through legislation, including specific recommendations such as expanding the authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and supporting the development of decentralized finance (DeFi). It also calls on regulators to provide clearer policy guidance for digital asset innovation within existing legal frameworks. In stark contrast to the digital asset report, the Federal Reserve has remained on hold on monetary policy. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, largely in line with market expectations. However, the decision was dissented by two Trump-appointed governors, who argued that current monetary policy was too tight. This marked the first time in over 30 years that two governors dissented, reflecting internal disagreements within the Fed over its monetary policy stance. The Fed noted in its statement that while unemployment remains low and the job market remains solid, inflation remains slightly elevated, and economic growth slowed in the first half of the year. This wording reflects the Fed's reluctance to hastily cut interest rates before the path of inflation and employment is clear, and its high level of vigilance regarding the uncertain economic outlook. These two important decisions reflect both the White House's proactive investment in emerging sectors and the Fed's cautious response to current economic risks, setting an important tone for the market environment in the second half of the year. In short, innovation is acceptable, but risk is not; this is the prevailing tone of US policy. #WhiteHouseDigitalAssetReport #FederalRepublic #InterestRate

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows for four consecutive days, while Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows for the 18th consecutive day. According to SoSoValue data, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $79.98 million yesterday, marking their fourth consecutive day of net inflows. Among them, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT led the list with a single-day net inflow of nearly $158 million yesterday, bringing IBIT's cumulative net inflow to $57.55 billion. Meanwhile, VanEck's Bitcoin ETF HODL saw a net inflow of $5.82 million yesterday. Notably, Grayscale's GBTC, Bitwise's BITB, and Ark & 21shares' ARKB saw net outflows of $48.97 million, $26.22 million, and $8.2 million, respectively, yesterday. As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $152.71 billion, accounting for 6.53% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $55.06 billion. On the same day, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of nearly $219 million, marking their 18th consecutive day of net inflows. Of these, BlackRock's Ethereum spot ETF, ETHA, saw a single-day net inflow of nearly $224 million, bringing ETHA's cumulative net inflow to $9.7 billion. However, 21shares' CETH saw a net outflow of $5.09 million yesterday. These two Ethereum ETFs were the only ETFs to experience net inflows or outflows yesterday. As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $21.61 billion, accounting for 4.75% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $9.62 billion. #BitcoinETF #EthereumETF #ETFFlows