Iran's pursuit of bilateral nuclear talks with the US caused Bitcoin to briefly fall below $75,000 As market sentiment remained weak, the cryptocurrency market experienced another widespread decline. Bitcoin prices suffered another sharp drop in the early hours of the morning, breaking below the key support level of $75,000 and briefly dipping to $73,000. It is reported that BTC fell from approximately $78,000 to below $73,000 in the past few hours. This rapid decline resulted in the liquidation of approximately $20 million in derivatives positions across major exchanges, with short positions accounting for the vast majority. According to Coingecko data, in the past 24 hours, BTC fell by 3.2%, ETH by 2.7%, XRP by 1.3%, SOL by 4.8%, and ADA by 0.3%, with the overall market showing a downward trend. Analysts believe that the direct trigger for this market volatility was the sudden change in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Reports indicate that Iran's proposal to change the format of its nuclear talks with the United States has directly led to a stalemate in the talks scheduled for this Friday in Istanbul. Previously, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman had strongly advocated for these talks, but Iran's preference for bilateral meetings has been seen as a potential undermining of diplomatic efforts. Meanwhile, the US troop buildup in the Gulf region has further increased the risk of regional military conflict. Faced with this sudden geopolitical development, traditional safe-haven assets and cryptocurrencies have exhibited drastically different trends. Gold, as a traditional safe haven, has risen approximately 6.15% in the past 24 hours; conversely, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 3.2% during the same period. This stark contrast between rising safe-haven assets and falling risk assets clearly illustrates the increasingly evident flow of funds driven by risk aversion in the current market. Under these circumstances, a substantial recovery in the crypto market is unlikely, and weak fluctuations may become the norm. #GeopoliticalRisks #IranNuclearTalks

President Trump Signs Appropriations Bill, Officially Ending US Government Shutdown On February 3, President Trump officially signed an appropriations bill, ending the recent partial shutdown of the US federal government. This action marks the official end of the partial government service disruptions caused by the budget impasse since the end of January. In a statement released on social media, the White House called the shutdown a "Democrat-caused shutdown" and stated that "getting our country running again" is the top priority. It is understood that the core reason for the government shutdown was the fundamental disagreement between the two parties on immigration enforcement policy at the Department of Homeland Security, which prevented the timely passage of the relevant budget. At the end of January, although the Senate passed a compromise at the last minute, splitting the Department of Homeland Security's funding from other departments and providing it with two weeks of temporary funding, the House recess failed to prevent a brief technical shutdown. The appropriations bill signed by President Trump is expected to provide funding to the most affected federal departments until the end of the fiscal year (September 30), thus avoiding the risk of another government shutdown in the short term. However, the bill only provides funding for the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks, allowing the two parties to reach a final agreement on the highly contentious immigration enforcement reform within those two weeks; otherwise, the government may face another shutdown in mid-February. Overall, this temporary end to the shutdown is more like a "halftime break" in a long-running political game than a fundamental bridging of differences. While both sides have gained breathing room through short-term funding, the substantive political deadlock remains unbroken. #Trump #USGovernmentResumesOperation

Analysts Warn: Bitcoin Has Broke Below 100-Week SMA, Historical Patterns May Lead to a 50% Deep Correction February 3rd news: According to on-chain analyst Ali Charts, Bitcoin closed below the key macro support level of the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment. Analysts believe that if historical patterns repeat themselves, a deep correction of 45% to 58% may occur within the next 30 to 50 days. This is because, historically, Bitcoin's breach of the 100-week moving average has often been a prelude to a test of the 200-week moving average. Specifically, since 2015, every time Bitcoin broke below this level, it failed to recover quickly and ultimately fell to near the 200-week moving average. For example: * In December 2014, after Bitcoin broke below its 100-week moving average, it plummeted 55% in 35 days. * In November 2018, after falling below its 100-week moving average, Bitcoin retraced 45% in 28 days. * In March 2020 (affected by the pandemic-induced price drop), Bitcoin fell from its 100-week moving average to its 200-week moving average in just one week, a 47% correction. * In May 2022, after breaking below its 100-week moving average, Bitcoin underwent another 49-day correction, ultimately resulting in a 58% drop. Based on these patterns, the downtrend from when Bitcoin breaks below its 100-week moving average to when it touches its 200-week moving average typically lasts between 30 and 50 days. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's closing price last week again fell below its 100-week SMA. If historical patterns repeat themselves, this round of correction could see a drop of approximately 50%, with a target price between $50,000 and $56,000, potentially occurring between March and April of this year. Overall, while the above projections are purely based on historical price patterns and provide a technical risk warning for the market, history does not simply repeat itself. The final price movement will depend on the combined effects of the macroeconomic environment, regulatory policies, and market structure. Participants need to remain cautious and flexible. #Bitcoin #DownsideRisk

US BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $562 million on Monday, while ETH ETFs experienced a net outflow of $2.86 million. February 3rd - According to SoSovalue data, US BTC spot ETFs recorded their first net inflow of funds this week yesterday, totaling nearly $562 million; and no BTC ETFs experienced net outflows yesterday. Fidelity's FBTC and BlackRock's IBIT ranked first and second in net inflows yesterday, with $153 million (approximately 1,960 BTC) and nearly $142 million (approximately 1,810 BTC) respectively. Next were Bitwise BITB, Grayscale BTC, and Ark & 21Shares ARKB, recording $96.5 million (approximately 1,230 BTC), $67.24 million (859.23 BTC), and $65.07 million respectively. Bitcoin saw a net inflow of $24.34 million (831.54 BTC) into Bitcoin ETFs. VanEck HODL, Invesco BTCO, and WisdomTree BTCW saw net inflows of $24.34 million (311.05 BTC), $10.09 million (129.00 BTC), and $3.31 million (42.32 BTC), respectively. As of now, Bitcoin spot ETFs have a total net asset value of $100.38 billion, representing 6.44% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $55.57 billion. On the same day, however, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $2.86 million, marking its third consecutive day of net outflows. BlackRock ETHA was the only ETH ETF to experience a net outflow yesterday, with $82.11 million (approximately 35,360 ETH). Meanwhile, Fidelity FETH, VanEck ETHV, and Bitwise ETHW recorded net inflows of $66.62 million (approximately 28,690 ETH), $7.64 million (approximately 3,290 ETH), and $4.99 million (approximately 2,150 ETH), respectively. As of now, Ethereum spot ETFs have a total net asset value of $13.69 billion, representing 4.88% of the total Ethereum market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.97 billion. #BitcoinETF #EthereumETF

Morgan Stanley: Fed Policy Unlikely to Shift Dramatically in the Short Term; Balance Sheet Reduction Unlikely to Arrive at Least Next Year A recent analysis by Morgan Stanley indicates that despite market speculation about a policy shift following the nomination of the new Fed Chair, a balance sheet reduction plan is unlikely to enter the substantive agenda until at least next year. The report points out that the Fed's policy decisions are not driven by individual will but are a complex process collectively agreed upon by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While new Chair Kevin Warsh has indeed expressed concerns about the large balance sheet, a substantial policy shift requires broad consensus within the committee, which cannot be achieved overnight. Therefore, even if Warsh favors accelerating policy normalization, internal coordination will limit substantive discussions and implementation of balance sheet reduction in the short term, making a rapid policy shift unlikely in the short term. Furthermore, regarding the market's focus on the prospect of interest rate cuts, Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious baseline forecast. The bank believes there may be room for two rate cuts in the second half of this year, but this strictly depends on whether inflation can clearly return to a downward trajectory. The report specifically emphasizes that if data shows a continued strong job market, robust consumer spending, and persistently sticky inflation, the possibility remains that the Federal Reserve will choose to maintain interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year. In short, the primary driver of the Fed's future interest rate policy will continue to be core economic data such as inflation and employment, rather than simply personnel changes. The analysis concludes by pointing out that a genuine policy shift will be gradual and highly data-dependent. Even if adjustments occur in the future, they are expected to be reflected first in the balance sheet, rather than in the benchmark interest rate. This relatively cautious expectation not only provides a moderate "rate cut" expectation for a potential radical shift in the market but also emphasizes the continuity and stability of monetary policy in a complex environment. #MorganStanley #FedPolicy

Global digital asset ETPs recorded net outflows for the second consecutive week, totaling $1.7 billion. According to Coinshares' weekly report, global digital asset investment products saw net outflows for the second consecutive week, with a single-week outflow of $1.7 billion, directly causing the year-to-date flow to turn negative, with a cumulative net outflow of $1 billion. Meanwhile, since the price peak in October 2025, the sector's assets under management (AuM) have evaporated by $73 billion, indicating a significant deterioration in investor confidence. By country/region, the US market remains the hardest hit by outflows, with a single-week outflow of $1.65 billion; Canada and Sweden followed closely, with net outflows of $37.3 million and $18.9 million, respectively. Meanwhile, some European markets, such as Switzerland and Germany, recorded slight inflows of $11 million and $4.3 million, respectively. Looking at asset classes, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw outflows of $1.321 billion and $308 million respectively last week; XRP and Solana, which have recently been popular, were also affected. This indicates that market caution has spread from individual assets to the entire cryptocurrency sector. Against this backdrop, shorting Bitcoin saw a weekly inflow of $14.5 million, with assets under management growing by 8.1% year-to-date; while speculative products attracted $15.5 million thanks to the recent surge in tokenized precious metal sales. The counter-trend growth of these two product categories reflects both some investors' use of defensive strategies to hedge against downside risk and the continued ability of specific narratives to attract structural funds in a weak market. Analysts believe that the main reason for this sell-off is the reshaping of market interest rate expectations by the appointment of a hawkish new Federal Reserve chairman, coupled with a four-year cycle of whale selling and escalating geopolitical uncertainty, all contributing to the current defensive market environment. Overall, the crypto market is gradually cooling down from its previous frenzy and entering a critical phase of risk reassessment. The restoration of overall market confidence still awaits clearer macroeconomic policy signals. #CryptocurrencyETP #InvestmentTrends

Bitcoin fell approximately 7% on Saturday, hitting $75,000, and Strategy's $10 billion BTC holdings briefly faced unrealized losses. The Bitcoin market experienced a severe liquidity shock over the weekend, with prices briefly dipping below $76,000, marking the first time it had tested the $75,000 level since April 2025. This plunge of over 7% also led to the liquidation of over $2.5 billion in leveraged positions, further worsening market sentiment. The key factor in this decline was that Bitcoin's price not only broke below the psychological level of $80,000 but also fell below the crucial "true market average" (the average cost of holding all currently circulating Bitcoin) of $80,700. On-Chain College, an on-chain analytics firm, pointed out that this is the first time since October 2023 (when Bitcoin was around $29,000) that its current market price has fallen below the average cost of holding, a negative signal for short- to medium-term price movements. Trader Keith Alan warned that if the decline continues, the next key support level will be the previous bull market peak of $69,000. Market focus then shifted to Strategy, the largest corporate holder, which holds 712,647 Bitcoins at an average cost of approximately $76,037. With the price briefly breaching this crucial level, its massive holding has turned from a paper profit to a paper loss. Although Strategy is a publicly traded company deeply tied to Bitcoin, the market clearly sensed the risk beforehand. Its stock price has plummeted nearly 70% from its July high, reflecting deep investor concerns about the viability of its Bitcoin strategy. Overall, the current Bitcoin market is facing pressure from multiple factors, including the breach of key cost moving averages, increased selling pressure during quiet trading hours, and even Strategy, the most ardent holder, experiencing a crisis of insufficient holdings. While some believe that current prices are approaching the bottom range of April 2025 and a rebound is imminent, restoring market confidence will not happen overnight and will require time and clearer signals of a bottom to support it. #BitcoinCrush #Strategy

US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a total outflow of over $1.8 billion last week. According to SosoValue data, US BTC spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.49 billion last week, marking the second-highest weekly net outflow in history. BlackRock's IBIT saw the largest net outflow among the 12 BTC ETFs last week, at $947 million. IBIT has now seen a cumulative inflow of $61.96 billion. Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC followed, recording net outflows of nearly $192 million and $119 million respectively. Bitwise's BITB and ARK 21Shares' ARKB saw net outflows of $112 million and $78.45 million respectively. Grayscale's BTC, Invesco's BTCO, and... VanEck HODL saw net outflows of $29.46 million, $8.38 million, and $3.56 million respectively in the past three weeks. Notably, Wisdom BTCW was the only BTC ETF to see a net inflow of $2.79 million last week. Currently, Bitcoin spot ETFs have a total net asset value of $106.96 billion, representing 6.38% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $55.01 billion. In the same week, Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded net outflows for the second consecutive week, with a price of nearly $3.27. No ETH ETF experienced net outflows last week. BlackRock's ETHA saw the largest net outflow among the nine ETH ETFs last week, with nearly $264 million. Currently, IBIT has seen a cumulative inflow of $12.24 billion. Grayscale's ETHE and ETH followed, recording net outflows of nearly $27.6 million and $16.5 million respectively. Fidelity's FETH and Bitwise ETHW saw net outflows of $16.92 million and $2 million respectively. As of now, Ethereum spot ETFs have a total net asset value of $15.86 billion, representing 4.90% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.97 billion. #BitcoinETF #EthereumETF

The CARF framework for global crypto tax transparency has been officially launched, leaving no room for offshore crypto asset tax evasion. According to Coindesk, with the official launch of the OECD-led Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) in multiple jurisdictions, a global collaborative regulatory network aimed at ending the "era of offshore crypto asset tax evasion" has moved from legal text to practical operation. The core of this framework is to establish a globally unified standard for crypto asset information reporting and to mandate that cryptocurrency exchanges, brokers, and other institutions automatically report user account and transaction data to tax authorities in various countries. Simultaneously, regulators can significantly improve their ability to track and identify unreported crypto assets by combining fiat currency deposit and withdrawal records, on-chain data analysis, and internal ledgers. The industry consensus is that this systemic change has exposed large investors holding unreported offshore crypto assets to unprecedented compliance and potential criminal risks. As a result, some investors have proactively made voluntary disclosures in hopes of obtaining more lenient treatment. Over 70 countries have committed to adopting and advancing CARF, with transaction data collection expected to begin in 2026 and the first large-scale cross-border tax information exchange scheduled for 2027. This signifies that global tax compliance regulation of crypto assets has officially entered a new phase of continuous tightening and high transparency. Overall, with the global implementation of the Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), the era of evading regulation by hiding assets in offshore accounts or behind complex technologies is over. For crypto asset holders, passively waiting or hoping to get away with it is tantamount to bearing enormous legal and financial risks. In this context, only by proactively acting within the regulatory framework and making compliant reports can a sustainable long-term security barrier be built for personal wealth. #CARF #CryptoTaxCompliance

Robert Kiyosaki: Market Crashes are a "Discount Season" for the Rich, Who Are Holding Cash to Buy Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin at Bargains On the morning of February 2nd, Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestselling book *Rich Dad Poor Dad*, posted on his social media platform X, comparing financial market crashes to "asset discount sales," sparking widespread discussion. He illustrated this by pointing out that during supermarket promotions like Walmart, the poor flock to the stores and scramble to buy; however, during a market crash where financial assets are "discounted," the poor often panic and sell off, while the rich seize the opportunity to buy in large quantities. Kiyosaki stated that the gold, silver, and Bitcoin markets are currently experiencing a crash, meaning these assets are entering a "discount sale" phase; he also revealed that he is currently holding cash and waiting for the right opportunity to increase his holdings of gold, silver, and Bitcoin. It's worth noting that Kiyosaki is known for his bearish views on fiat currencies and his advocacy for hard assets. His definition of the asset price decline caused by market panic selling as a "discount sale" implies that the current correction in gold, silver, and Bitcoin presents a good entry opportunity for value investors. Overall, at a time when the crypto market is experiencing record-breaking liquidations and a period of low sentiment in gold and silver, the public pronouncements of opinion leaders like Kiyosaki not only add new focus to the market discussion but also bring his contrarian investment logic back into the spotlight. #RobertKiyosaki