The Fed's March dot plot predicts no rate cuts or one rate cut in 2026.
The 19 officials' predictions for rate cuts in 2026 are as follows:
7 predict no rate cuts,
7 predict one rate cut,
2 predict 2-3 rate cuts each, and
1 predicts 4 rate cuts, essentially a supporter of Powell, Milan.
As for the 2027-2028 predictions, the median, and the majority, predict only 2 rate cuts relative to now.
CME interest rate futures show that the market previously expected one rate cut in 2026, making the dot plot's bearish outlook unsurprising. However, the Iran conflict last night directly pulled down prices, possibly partially offsetting the bearish impact of the dot plot.
However, this dot plot is not 100% representative of interest rate decisions; I'll write more about that tomorrow.