Bitcoin has plummeted! Is a rebound imminent? Where can we short again? Let's take a look.
1. The recent decline is no accident. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin hit a resistance level, encountering resistance at the trendline and falling in a very structured pattern. This decline is likely to first reach the lower edge of the consolidation zone. Once it breaks through, the consequences could be dire! Will it break through?
2. I think the probability is quite high, because the previous descending flag pattern break occurred after the Fed's interest rate decision. Furthermore, Bitcoin fell for 1-2 weeks after the previous four interest rate decisions, so the situation this time is not optimistic.
3. However, our trading strategy prioritizes stability. I've already taken profits on some short positions, locking in gains, so even if a rebound occurs, we can easily short at higher prices.
4. In the short term, the area around 69,500 is the previous consolidation zone, providing some support. I want to see if a significant rebound can occur here before shorting. Ideally, the levels around 71,800 and 73,000 would be good entry points.
5. The current decline is likely to end around 68,000, near the lower edge of the upward trend line. However, this is just a general area; the trend line isn't perfectly precise, which is why Shuqin took profits on a portion of the position first.
6. We shorted at 74,000 three times in the past two weeks, successfully closing the positions each time, and taking profits at relatively low points in the decline. We weren't aggressively betting that it would definitely break through. This is why we still have funds to deal with so many attempts to break through the peaks—this is called position management.
7. Of course, I'm still bearish in the long term. It's only a matter of time before it breaks below the previous low of 60,000. Therefore, I still have 30% of my short positions open, aiming for even greater profits. This amount of capital seems large, but it's all from my previous profits. I'm using profits to gamble, averaging down, but I'm not afraid at all, operating in real-time.