Will Powell cause a market crash tonight? Will Bitcoin plummet after the Fed's interest rate decision? Let's take a look. 1. Three major events will occur tonight! First, the Fed's interest rate decision at 2 AM and the dot plot of interest rates for the next three years. The decision itself isn't particularly noteworthy; there will definitely be no rate cut. The market's biggest focus is on the dot plot. 2. The 19 voting committee members will vote on their expectations for Fed interest rates over the next few years, and the results will be presented in the dot plot, providing market guidance on interest rates for the next few years. This will have a significant macroeconomic impact. Given the sharp rise in inflation caused by oil, this dot plot is not optimistic. 3. But that's not all. Immediately following is Powell's speech at 2:30 AM. He may discuss the possibility of stagflation, which is not so optimistic. I personally think the probability of a negative impact tonight is quite high. 4. The third event is the subsequent impact. As we analyzed in our article on the 13th, Bitcoin fell after all four interest rate meetings last year, with significant drops of 10-30%, lasting about two weeks. Will it be the same this time? I think we need to be cautious. 5. So, in general, I think tonight might be a turning point for the market. I personally hold low-leverage long-term short positions, and I think the probability of a long-term decline is high. For short-term trading, we can simply buy or sell at major support and resistance levels, taking profits on pullbacks. 6. As Shuqin mentioned yesterday afternoon, the ETH short position should take profit at 2310, and then we could short again on a rebound. And last night at 11 pm, he actually came, and we advised everyone to short at the live broadcast. At that time, the price was 2350. Hey, half an hour later, it was short again! It's that fast. Regardless of bull or bear markets, we can trade both long and short positions.