This gave me a real scare! Has Bitcoin gone mad? Will it continue to rise? Let's take a look.
1. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin's big players started a bloodbath against the short sellers. In just one afternoon, short sellers lost a whopping $1.4 billion. There are still a few short positions around $74,500 that haven't been liquidated, but most short positions have been wiped out. Will Bitcoin continue to rise?
2. Actually, if you look at the short position data on the right, there are very few short positions above the liquidation line of 75,000, and almost none at 77,000. However, on the other hand, the leveraged long positions on the left are getting larger and larger, mainly concentrated at three liquidation points (support levels): 71,000, 70,000, and 69,000. These are strong support levels, and most long positions have their stop-loss orders placed here.
3. Therefore, Shu Qin doesn't deny the possibility of $BTC continuing to rise, for example, to the next resistance level of 78,000. However, rationally speaking, the probability of a pullback is probably higher right now. Because the futures market is a zero-sum game, for every person who loses money, someone else must win. Maximizing retail investor losses (margin calls) maximizes the profits of market makers, giving them a greater incentive to liquidate positions.
4. As for the trading strategy, as shown in the chart, Shuqin previously advised everyone to take profits on some short positions at 70,500, suggesting another short position after a rebound. Now, the price has reached 74,000 again, so this afternoon I very cautiously placed a double-leveraged short position at 74,000, prepared to add to my position at 78,000, entering the market in batches. Even if I'm temporarily trapped, I believe it will eventually come down.
5. Actually, even if it does reach 78,000, we'll still be profitable because we took profits on our two previous short positions at 74,000. Having profits makes us less anxious. If it falls back to 74,000, we've shorted three times in a row – the profit is huge! I initially thought one short position would be enough, but I ended up shorting three times! Although it was agonizing, the profits are real.
6. I think our best decision was taking profits on part of our positions when we shorted at 74,000 twice, at the key support levels of 67,000 and 70,000. The average price of our other short positions was also at 72,000 and 74,000. It's just that the price has risen back up now. Although it's disheartening to see, we still made a profit. Now we're just waiting to see if the interest rate will stabilize after Wednesday's meeting. If so, we'll make a fortune! Shuqin is really looking forward to it!