Following the weekly settlement, BTC surged, currently approaching $74,000, the upper limit of the trading range since February.
The options market reacted tepidly, with the implied volatility of BTC end-of-term options remaining below 50%, and ETH end-of-term options below 70%, both lower than the implied volatility of their main maturities.
In terms of trading volume, large-volume call options accounted for less than 30% of trading, concentrated in slightly out-of-the-money options at the end of the month, which is relatively low for a 5% price increase. The options market has not priced in this surge well; VRP rebounded but did not turn positive, and the market still believes volatility is overvalued.
Currently, the trading range has not been effectively broken. If a breakout above $75,000 can occur over the weekend during a period of low liquidity, breaking out of the trading range, then a sustained upward trend is possible, but this is highly unlikely.