🚨 Big Players Hedging Against Ethereum's Worst-Case Scenario, Still Preparing for the Next Round of Operations
🔹We haven't seen such a clear two-stage structure in Ethereum options trading for a long time.
🔹Total size: Approximately $97 million in notional principal (approximately $69 million on February 27th | approximately $28 million on March 26th).
🔹The goal is not purely one-sided betting, but risk hedging and volatility arbitrage.
1⃣ February 27th Segment – Downside Hedging (1800 → 1500)
- Notional Principal: Approximately $69 million | Net Premium: -$300,000
- Profit: Profits begin when Ethereum price falls below 1800, with maximum profit reached at 1500
→ In the short term, traders are preparing for a decline in Ethereum. If Ethereum (ETH) continues to fall to around $1500, the trade on February 27th will serve as a low-cost hedge against spot risk.
2⃣ March 26th Trade – Theta Mining/Bounce Strategy (2000 → 2600)
- Notional Amount: Approximately $28 million | Net Premium: +$2.25 million
- Profit: Profitable as long as the Ethereum price is above $2000, with maximum profit if the price remains above $2600
→ This trade spans approximately one month, with the strike price and spot price not differing significantly, indicating that the trader, while collecting a premium, also allowed room for a rebound after the sell-off. The $2.25 million premium collected offset the approximately $300,000 hedging costs paid in the February 27th trade.
📊 Summary
Short-term downside hedging + medium-term volatility selling to cover insurance costs – not a one-sided bet on Ethereum.