The four-year cycle is different from the Stock-to-Flow Ratio (S2F) model. The four-year cycle theory posits that the first year after a halving is a bull market, as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. 2025 clearly doesn't follow this pattern. However, the S2F model doesn't explicitly identify bull or bear markets, nor does it pinpoint tops or bottoms. The core argument of the S2F model is that scarcity drives value; Bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because it is scarcer. The S2F model simulates a non-linear phase transition path for Bitcoin's price to move towards $30 trillion or more. This model roughly simulates the average price over a four-year cycle (regardless of whether each year is a bull or bear market). The current cycle's average price is $90,000, significantly higher than the previous cycle's $34,000, and in my view, the Bitcoin price will still move towards the $250,000 to $1 million range predicted by the S2F model (with two years to go). I remain convinced of this.