Rehearsals are underway! FF's EAI Robots & Vehicles+ launch event and FFPar recruitment conference will unveil three humanoid bionic robots, a three-in-one EAI ecosystem, and four major trends shaping the future. These collectively mark the beginning of a truly booming era for EAI robots.

Bitcoin closed at $78,635 in January (down 38% from its all-time high). 200-week moving average: $58,000 Actual price: $55,000, continuing its decline Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50 (blue zone): Officially entering bear market territory Historically, Bitcoin prices have fallen to the 200-week moving average/actual price level. However, bullish momentum is currently weak (no red zone appears), so the bearish momentum may be shallow.

Most charts showing the market capitalization of Bitcoin, gold, and global stocks are scaled incorrectly. The chart below shows the correct scale for Bitcoin's market capitalization ($2 trillion), gold's market capitalization ($35 trillion), and stock's market capitalization ($140 trillion):

It's great to see that gold has finally caught up with Bitcoin.

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The four-year cycle is different from the Stock-to-Flow Ratio (S2F) model. The four-year cycle theory posits that the first year after a halving is a bull market, as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. 2025 clearly doesn't follow this pattern. However, the S2F model doesn't explicitly identify bull or bear markets, nor does it pinpoint tops or bottoms. The core argument of the S2F model is that scarcity drives value; Bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because it is scarcer. The S2F model simulates a non-linear phase transition path for Bitcoin's price to move towards $30 trillion or more. This model roughly simulates the average price over a four-year cycle (regardless of whether each year is a bull or bear market). The current cycle's average price is $90,000, significantly higher than the previous cycle's $34,000, and in my view, the Bitcoin price will still move towards the $250,000 to $1 million range predicted by the S2F model (with two years to go). I remain convinced of this.

I am the reserve manager at the central bank. My job is to buy gold. This year, we bought 297 tons. We bought quietly. Meanwhile, we are also printing money. We bought loudly. Yesterday, gold reached $5,000 an ounce. We started buying when gold was $1,800. This is called "reserve diversification." Diversification means we don't trust our own currency. But we can't say that. So we say "diversification." The governor was on television last month. He said inflation was "stable." Stable means 6%. It used to be 2%. We adjusted the anchor. That's monetary policy. He said the currency is "sound." Sound means it depreciates by 20% every year. Every year. But it sounds sound sound. That's the point. We bought 45 tons of gold in November. Poland bought 95 tons. Brazil bought 43 tons. China reports it bought 1 ton. China is lying. We all know. Nobody says it. 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves next year. This is a survey. We conducted our own survey. Regarding whether we trust ourselves. We don't. We trust gold. People ask why prices keep rising. We say "supply chain". We say "external factors". We won't say, "Since 2020, we've printed 40% of the current money supply." That's not external factors. That's ourselves. The finance minister asked if gold could hedge against our own policy risks. I said, "Gold is a strategic reserve asset." Strategic reserve means yes. I simply can't agree. Gold is currently worth $5,000. Our currency is depreciating every day. Our gold, however, is appreciating. That's strategy. That's how it works for us. But it's not the same for you. You receive currency. We receive gold. That's how central banks operate.

Gold and Bitcoin investors always love to argue about who's smarter. But gold and Bitcoin are actually in the same camp; their risk/reward characteristics (according to the Calmar index) are almost identical. The best investment strategy is to combine gold and Bitcoin. For example, an 80% gold + 20% Bitcoin portfolio has lower risk but twice the return of pure gold.

The market value of gold increased by approximately $10 trillion last year. I wouldn't be surprised if some of those profits were transferred to Bitcoin.

Are we throwing a party for 100,000 fans this weekend?!