"What Will Happen in the Crypto Market After the December Rate Cut?" The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, seemingly settling the matter, but the market's "expectation game" continues. The direction of the crypto market doesn't depend on the rate cut itself, but rather on six key expectations: 1. Is this the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle, or a one-off move? If it's the start of a cycle, crypto's medium-term trend is stronger; If it's just a symbolic rate cut, the market will enter a period of consolidation. 2. How much room for rate cuts is there in 2026? As long as interest rate futures begin to price in more rate cuts, risk assets will strengthen again. 3. The direction of real interest rates (10-year TIPS): BTC's trend almost perfectly corresponds to real interest rates. Lower real interest rates → Strong medium-term trend for crypto; Rising real interest rates → Pressure remains. 4. Fiscal liquidity: Will TGA decline? TGA decline = Fiscal spending reinjecting money into the market → This is more effective than a 25bp rate cut in driving crypto trends. 5. ETF Fund Flows: Rate cuts are just the background; the real driver of the market is whether BTC/ETH ETFs continue to see net inflows. If ETFs continue to attract funds, the trend won't end due to "profit-taking." 6. Will a narrative emerge that can attract funds? Whether funds can achieve a healthy diffusion cycle from BTC → ETH → mainstream narratives (such as AI/L2/RWA), this will determine whether altcoins can start the next phase of the market and the height of the bull market. In short, rate cuts are not the end, but the beginning of a new round of expectations. What truly determines the direction of the crypto market is the interest rate path, liquidity changes, institutional fund flows, and sector rotation structure over the next 12 months.