What's happening in the cryptocurrency market? What's the most reasonable analysis of upcoming trends? First, let's briefly discuss Bitcoin before moving on to other cryptocurrencies. Currently, there are two main camps in the Bitcoin market: • One camp believes the next peak is at $126,000, and that we are in a bear market. • The other camp believes an even higher peak is imminent. In my opinion, let's analyze the existing data: 1️⃣ The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut, and market expectations for a December rate cut are rising. Coupled with the Fed's statement pausing quantitative tightening, this means monetary easing and liquidity expansion are inevitable, which is more conducive to price increases than any decline. 2️⃣ The crash on October 10th led to a massive sell-off, and now we are seeing a similar reverse accumulation, with a large number of short positions appearing around $130,000. If prices rise, these short positions are likely to trigger, which will also support price increases. 3️⃣ From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has touched the yellow zone (key support level) and rebounded from near $90,000, but several resistance levels remain ahead. A break above these resistance levels is not impossible as short positions begin to be liquidated. As for altcoins: • The altcoin to Bitcoin ratio is low, meaning altcoins haven't yet experienced a liquidity rotation. Their widespread decline is due to their previous support of Bitcoin's rise to current levels. • The Bitcoin dominance index is rising, meaning market focus remains on Bitcoin. Altcoins haven't broken dominance yet, and a breakout could trigger a genuine altcoin rally. • Altcoins are currently low and haven't experienced genuine cyclical fluctuations; previous "cyclical fluctuations" in some coins were merely false. Summary: Bitcoin and altcoins are currently low, and indicators point to a potential upward trend rather than a downward one. The question is: should we trust the four-year cycle theory or current market indicators? $BTC $ETH #Altcoins #AltcoinSeason #BearMarket #BullMarket {spot}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(BTCUSDT)