When I wrote this in 2024, our argument at @primitivecrypto was that we had entered a new era where the market viewed Bitcoin as a trillion-dollar, high-beta growth tech stock, not a monetary toy. The price action since its all-time high in March 2024 validates this: $BTC and $ARKK have moved in highly correlated ways, with nearly identical yield curves. This mindset remains a core principle for navigating the current cycle. Another signal we're closely watching is the divergence in liquidity conditions. Near the top of the late cycle, Binance's open interest (OI) surged, while CME's OI declined: institutional investors weren't embracing the rally. This pattern has recurred in all recent attempts to break new all-time highs. Native cryptocurrency investors/offshore retail tend to lag behind structural changes in macro liquidity, while institutional investors with positions in both growth tech and the global macroeconomy have consistently avoided increasing directional exposure, even during the 2025 rally. Their cryptocurrency liquidity depends on the overall performance of growth technologies (as growth technologies compete with cryptocurrencies). The gap between Binance and CME Group's Open Interest (OI) has consistently been one of the clearest leading indicators of this cycle. This is even more evident in the drop in Binance OI from 100,000 to 90,000: Binance OI remained stable (or even slightly increased), while CME Group OI declined sharply. Just as different body types require different diets, liquidity composition dictates strategies in this market. "Who's bidding?" remains the most pressing question for all asset allocators. Once the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) allows physical margining (expected in 2026), the new liquidity mechanism will further tighten domestic risk budgets.