I've experienced countless "survival crises" in the cryptocurrency world, but each time the sense of crisis has gradually diminished. - First shock: The collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange. I was completely stunned, not even realizing it. My net worth in cryptocurrencies wasn't enormous in absolute terms, but for a recent graduate, it was quite considerable. Second shock: The Bitfinex hack. I thought it was all over. However, the issuance of redeemed tokens, coupled with the solidarity of creditors, led to the epic birth of Tether. Post-ICO crash: The most painful moment. Net worth shrank dramatically. I learned a painful lesson from altcoins and founded Primitive Ventures during the depths of the 2018 bear market. - March 2020: The most difficult period. If BitMEX hadn't shut down, our entire industry might have been completely finished. But psychologically, this blow was relatively minor because the difficult period of 2018-2019 and my subsequent experience surviving the global COVID-19 pandemic had already adapted my mind to new chaos. - The 2022 FTX crash: madness, like a scene from a movie. We withdrew our investment as soon as we sensed SBF's impending doom, narrowly escaping disaster. This also made me realize once again: if you understand behavior, you'll find that founders constantly leak information. Every cycle leaves its scars. In the cryptocurrency world, these scars transform into antifragility: more complete prior knowledge, faster reaction times, and clearer counterparty rules. Cryptocurrency practitioners have been ahead of the curve in many significant socio-economic changes: fighting botnets before "artificial intelligence" became mainstream; demanding data sovereignty before LLMs (Local Management Systems) rapidly injected data and manipulated public opinion. They understand the future of surveillance nations and are therefore extremely vigilant about operational security, staying away from the internet. We, too, have suffered greatly from loopholes in human incentive mechanisms and behavioral biases, paying a heavy price early on. Experience cannot be compressed. Time is the only leverage that no one can monetize. My fellow travelers, we will eventually see a new turning point.

Ironically, professional fund managers/traders on Wall Street need to increase their estrogen dosage to make rational trades, hahaha.

75k > Strategy Cost Basis 70k > On-Chain Tea Support Level/Previous All-Time High Approx. 60k > 200-Day Moving Average Maximum drawdown 25%, the only unknown is how artificial intelligence will ultimately develop (AI is currently still at a high level). OpenAI's new round of financing and Anthropologie's IPO will be a turning point for all risky assets.

Many "AI tools" demand extremely restrictive permissions. Be extra careful. If the vendor is a small model provider, the risk of information being injected is very high. My approach is: what scope of work would I grant the contractor? I would absolutely not allow them to freely enter my house when I'm out.

A perspective from AI tool Maxi: - Never use tools like Clawbot (or other AI tools with critical access) for high-risk tasks; the best approach is to use them as external contractors. - The main cost is not the Mac mini, but the token cost. Minimax is recommended for greater cost-effectiveness.

1/ Most prediction market comparisons overlook a crucial point: category mix - Kalshi: Sports approximately 90% - Polymarket: Sports + Politics approximately 80% - Viewpoint: More balanced across categories like TGE/Culture/Cryptocurrency/Macroeconomics So, what drives this shift? Is it culture (regional demand) or a preference for curated selection? 2/ My current view (after discussions with traders on these three platforms): Culture reflects the scope of demand, while curated selection determines whether that demand translates into repeat purchases. US users are deeply involved in sports betting, and US politics has become a major reality show, making retailers highly sensitive to political events. Therefore, Kalshi/Polymarket naturally optimizes for fewer markets but offers a wider range of betting options, making it ideal for high rollers and professional consumers. 3/ The demand in Eastern markets, or rather, the focus and knowledge level of retailers, is drastically different. In China, discussing politics is strictly restricted. Japanese retailers, on the other hand, are largely indifferent to it. South Korean retail focuses more on pure speculation and popular culture/Korean dramas. This is precisely Opinion's real strength: its ability to keenly capture local culture, thus maintaining the vitality of the mid-to-long tail market. 4/ Just as the Chinese version of Instagram (RedNote) is vastly different from Instagram itself, localization is key to the long-term success of prediction markets in product design and marketing. I believe we will ultimately see two different prediction market models catering to different user preferences, much like most culture-centric products.

Passing by a Tanaka Precious Metals store, I saw long queues of Japanese retail consumers rushing to buy gold. When a country with one of the world's highest savings rates and the largest holdings of its own long-term bonds begins a bottom-up shift towards gold…👀 - Gold prices hit new highs - The USD/JPY exchange rate has slightly retreated from its record high of 160 - Japanese government bond yields hit record highs… A wave of massive capital flight is converging.

If you truly love what you're doing, you don't need to change yourself. If you truly hate what you're doing, you also don't need to change yourself. The only thing that needs to change is pretending that you don't.

Since the MSTR debacle triggered the biggest panic, we've internally reviewed the 2026 outlook for Ethereum dats. The downstream impact of Ethereum dats on the Ethereum on-chain economy and TVL distribution is worth watching. Follow @0xtony0x for more insider information and to understand the evolution of this system.

The sharp decline in the 1970s was attributed to modern contraception. However, the widespread adoption of all these technologies has led to further privatization of all aspects of life and an accelerated development of individualism, giving us seemingly endless choices regarding the meaning of life. It has made us transcend the evolutionary instinct to pursue higher things and has also stifled the family responsibilities that once defined our identity.