Today in the CoinKarma member group, everyone discussed a core question: What stage is the market currently in? If we take an optimistic view, the current situation is more like: - May 19, 2021 - July 22, 2021 - August 18, 2023 - October 10, 2023 Both periods represent periods of high volatility and turbulence following a sharp drop. Although the market experienced a severe shakeout, it is still generally in the intermediate stages of a bull market. But if we take a more pessimistic view, it's more like December 4, 2021 - December 21, 2021. That was a period when the upward momentum completely faded, signaling a shift from bull to bearish. Personally, I'm still bullish on BTC (only). However, if a bear market does occur, I believe this one will be relatively mild. Why do I say that? Because the bear market after December 4, 2021, occurred at the beginning of an interest rate hike cycle. The macroeconomic environment was extremely unfavorable for risky assets. Additionally, there was a large amount of hidden leverage hidden within the market at the time: Concentrated risks like LUNA, 3AC, and Alameda created a chain reaction after their collapse. If you look closely at the decline in 2022, the two crashes of LUNA and FTX were the ones that truly accelerated the collapse. The rest of the period was mostly a volatile decline. Although the market is weak, there are still fluctuations to exploit, and skilled traders still have room to thrive in such an environment. In contrast, now, leverage has long been cleared, the macroeconomic environment has shifted to a cycle of interest rate cuts, and the entire industry is structurally healthier after the baptism of fire in 2022. While there is a high probability that some institutions are already insolvent, the spillover effects of such events are unlikely to spread throughout the entire industry like the 3AC crisis did. Simply put: Even if a bear market were to turn here, it would likely be a more resilient one. As a trader with a left-leaning style, this environment is precisely where I excel. The volatility is large, the pace is slow, and the sentiment is repetitive— This gives our system the space to repeatedly enter and adjust positions. After the 10/11 incident, Ultron's net asset value rose another 13%. This kind of "mud fight"-like volatile market is hell for most people, but for our quantitative system, it is the time when it can best demonstrate its advantages.