The prevailing market view is that altcoins are finished after October 11th.
This can be viewed from two perspectives:
From a liquidity perspective, the market originally hoped that DATs would attract a wave of new capital into the cryptocurrency market.
However, after October 11th, these DATs have found it very difficult to secure funding from outsiders.
No legitimate investor is willing to invest in a target that could potentially plummet by 60%-70% or more in an hour.
This incident alone demonstrates that most altcoins are unsuitable as long-term investments.
Thus, this massive market crash not only hurts those within the cryptocurrency market but also severely impacts the perception of the cryptocurrency market among those outside the industry.
In addition, many market makers suffered heavy losses during this wave.
Currently, we see many small coins continuing to experience selling pressure.
It's likely that some small market makers have already entered a "quasi-liquidation" process, and the sell-off is about to end.
So from this perspective, I don't think we'll see another full-blown altcoin season.
However, from the perspective of a "leverage reset,"
I believe there will still be individual altcoins that can significantly outperform BTC, and the number will be significant.
2022 will be a bear market throughout,
and there will still be some random things rising wildly.
As long as there's a good story and the major players have accumulated enough capital,
even in the worst of circumstances, there will still be some things that will surge. I think it's worth observing some older coins that are already in full circulation and haven't been pressured by VCs or group selling. After all, their longevity suggests there are always market makers willing to buy in through cycles and engage in pump-and-dump trading.
After 10/11, leverage in the market has almost completely disappeared.
If there's another bull market,
I believe these market makers will likely have already begun secretly buying in large quantities.
As for what will cause the explosion,
we can observe whether older coins are willing to explore "new areas."
For example, the recently resurgent concept of privacy,
or newer concepts like x402,
are areas worth keeping an eye on.