Honestly, Bitcoin shouldn't fall too far below this level. The day when US stocks correct and the crypto market stops following suit might be the real bottom. The current stagnation is just a prelude to a higher bounce later. Let's wait until it breaks below $100,000 before calling it a bear market.

Several friends I know have been withdrawing their funds recently. Besides the disappointment with the industry following the massive sell-off on October 11th, many also feel that the overall cryptocurrency market's gains over the past six months have lagged far behind other markets. While I remain bullish on the market outlook, I can only wish them all the best.

A famous saying in the CoinKarma group: Don't go long when it's red, don't go short when it's green. Buy when it's green, sell when it's red, and hold onto your profits. When BTC is above 115K, the Market Pulse Index starts to turn red. This is why I posted on 10/27 telling you not to get carried away with your long positions. Join CK, and let's buy low and sell high together.

My recent 12-game winning streak in quantitative trading was broken. I tried opening two short positions at 113.5K, but thanks to the short-selling filter, both positions were closed almost immediately, resulting in only transaction fees and a cumulative loss of less than 0.1%. Finally, I shorted at 114.8K and closed all positions when the price dropped to 112.5K this afternoon. Although I'm still profitable overall, my AUM has dropped back to around 9.7M. Perhaps shorting is more mentally taxing.

Someone asked me what I thought about AI trading bot competitions. In reality, LLMs are primarily statistical modeling based on text corpora. They excel at understanding natural language, generating coherent text, and emulating human thought patterns and emotions. But they are not time series models. Price prediction falls under the "continuous data + high noise + non-stationary time series" problem, which is completely outside the scope of LLMs. You might think they can trade, but in reality, they're just messing around. So, using LLM models for quantitative trading is just for fun. There will always be winners in the short term, but in the long term, all models will inevitably fail miserably. Don't mistake this for some kind of scientific revolution; it's more like scientific entertainment.

When I was little, my mother often told me: Don't be complacent about others' misfortunes, and don't be resentful about others' fortunes. I didn't understand the weight of these words when I was young, but I've come to understand them more as I've grown older.

Our official Twitter account warned of a high risk of decline yesterday, and it did drop today. We posted a bullish signal on the 18th, when it was still at 105K. While we can't give advance warnings for every trade to protect user alpha, we do give warnings at some major market turning points. There aren't many official Twitter accounts worth following in the crypto world. Ours, @coinkarma_, is definitely worth following!

True freedom has nothing to do with money. True freedom is having the confidence to say "no." No need to compromise yourself to maintain a relationship, No need to sacrifice your dignity to protect a certain benefit, No need to smile at people you disagree with, No need to compromise for rules you don't agree with, And no need to flatter others in exchange for recognition or resources. Do you think someone worth hundreds of billions is free? No, when you earn a certain amount of money, it's no longer simply "your money"—it's bound to the expectations of shareholders, the livelihoods of your team, deep ties within the industry chain, and even rules and regulations that are difficult for outsiders to imagine. I don't envy the extremely wealthy, because possessing that level of wealth carries with it a greater weight of responsibility and karma. In my eyes, true freedom isn't simply about having money, but about maintaining your integrity after becoming rich—letting money give you the confidence to reject a life you don't want, rather than living the life you once hated.

The rain finally stopped. touch grass

The prevailing market view is that altcoins are finished after October 11th. This can be viewed from two perspectives: From a liquidity perspective, the market originally hoped that DATs would attract a wave of new capital into the cryptocurrency market. However, after October 11th, these DATs have found it very difficult to secure funding from outsiders. No legitimate investor is willing to invest in a target that could potentially plummet by 60%-70% or more in an hour. This incident alone demonstrates that most altcoins are unsuitable as long-term investments. Thus, this massive market crash not only hurts those within the cryptocurrency market but also severely impacts the perception of the cryptocurrency market among those outside the industry. In addition, many market makers suffered heavy losses during this wave. Currently, we see many small coins continuing to experience selling pressure. It's likely that some small market makers have already entered a "quasi-liquidation" process, and the sell-off is about to end. So from this perspective, I don't think we'll see another full-blown altcoin season. However, from the perspective of a "leverage reset," I believe there will still be individual altcoins that can significantly outperform BTC, and the number will be significant. 2022 will be a bear market throughout, and there will still be some random things rising wildly. As long as there's a good story and the major players have accumulated enough capital, even in the worst of circumstances, there will still be some things that will surge. I think it's worth observing some older coins that are already in full circulation and haven't been pressured by VCs or group selling. After all, their longevity suggests there are always market makers willing to buy in through cycles and engage in pump-and-dump trading. After 10/11, leverage in the market has almost completely disappeared. If there's another bull market, I believe these market makers will likely have already begun secretly buying in large quantities. As for what will cause the explosion, we can observe whether older coins are willing to explore "new areas." For example, the recently resurgent concept of privacy, or newer concepts like x402, are areas worth keeping an eye on.