ETH hovers around 4520: Is it a fake-out or the eve of a true breakout? The current price of 4520 is right above the 70% trading range (VAH ≈ 4529). The Proof of Coin (POC) is anchored at 4358. The upper HVN band of 4297-4418 provides a multi-layered buffer, while the lower LVN band of 4206-4257 is a "vacuum zone." A break below 4440 could accelerate the decline. Over the past 24 hours, the futures market has seen a net outflow of 171,000 contracts, while the spot market has also seen a 5,000-contract outflow. This indicates a simultaneous decline in both volume and price. The 1-hour Up/Down ratio is 0.45, indicating continued seller dominance. The 1-hour Bollinger Band's middle line at 4531 has turned negative, while the RSI at 46 is not oversold. The 1-hour MA200 at 4474 and the VAL at 4287 form two steps. There are 4.4 million USDT in excess sell orders near the order book. There are 9.4 thousand USDT wall orders at the top of 4573, and only 6.7 thousand USDT below 4450, indicating a deep bearish bias. Market Cycle: The 2-week VPVR shows the price at the 70% mark of the high. Combined with the 0.12% drop in OI over the past three days and the increase in the long-short ratio to 3.83, this indicates the end of a "volatile upward trend." If the VAL falls below, the market will enter a correction phase. Trading Strategy (Short-Term, ≤12 hours) Aggressive: Buy lightly on a pullback to 4474±5 (MA200), with a stop-loss at 4440 (outside the lower band), and a target of 4529/4573, with a RR ≈ 1.6. Conservative: Wait for a break below 4440 and then a rebound to 4450 to short, stop loss at 4485 (recent HVN + 0.5 × ATR ≈ 28), target 4358 (POC), RR ≈ 2.1. Conservative: Go long after a break above 4573 and a 15-minute close that stabilizes, stop loss at 4530, target 4622 (upper Bollinger Band), RR ≈ 1.9. LP Market Maker: We recommend placing a double-track order in the 4470-4530 range, with a grid size of 5 USDT and a position size of ≤30%. Be wary of an increase in net outflow within the 12-hour period or a sudden drop below 4440 in spot price volume; immediately narrow the range. Failure Signals: 1) 1-hour price drops below 4440 on heavy volume and fails to recover within 30 minutes; 2) OI suddenly increases by >1% and price breaks through 4573, warn of a short-covering squeeze. Like and follow for real-time updates! $ETH