At the opening bell on Wednesday, the Nasdaq rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 rose 0.12%, and the US dollar index fell 0.19%. Gold rose 1.1% to a record high of $3,570 per ounce.
On Thursday, the US ADP small non-farm payrolls were expected to be 65,000, up from 104,000 in the previous month; the August non-farm payrolls were expected to be 75,000, up from 73,000 in the previous month.
On Friday, the US unemployment rate for August was expected to be 4.3%, up from 4.2% in the previous month. The weak job market has raised the probability of a Fed rate cut on September 17th to 90%.
Currently, BTC's market capitalization is approximately 10% of gold's. The next threshold, if it reaches 15-20% of gold's market capitalization, would correspond to a price of $170,000-220,000. I believe reaching 20% of gold's market capitalization is already a significant step forward. A Bitcoin price of $150,000-170,000 by the end of the year would be excellent, leaving room for interest rate cuts in the first half of next year. Be aware of the risks associated with inaccurate predictions.
If there's a surge before a rate cut, it's a classic case of buying on the news and selling on the facts: rising before good news and falling after. If there's no significant surge before a rate cut, there may be a rebound after the good news. Last September, there wasn't a significant surge before the rate cut, but there was a rebound after the good news.
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