Will history repeat itself? Bitcoin's September curse returns, with eight declines in 11 years.
The crypto market appears to be once again caught in the historical curse of "Red September." Since the beginning of September, risk aversion has gripped the market, with total market capitalization evaporating by over $100 billion in just a few days. Historical statistics show that Bitcoin prices have fallen in September in eight of the past 11 years, with an average drop of approximately 8.5%.
This seasonal weakness is no coincidence. From a market behavioral perspective, September typically marks the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer vacation, when traders and institutions return to the market and potentially reassess their portfolios, leading to increased trading activity and heightened volatility.
According to a K33 Research report, across 11 years of data from 2013 to 2023, the probability of a Bitcoin decline in September is as high as 73%. The only exceptions were the early stages of the bull market in 2015 and 2016, and a brief rebound in 2021.
The start of September this year appears to be confirming this curse. After a brief rebound at the end of August, the market reversed course, with Bitcoin falling from $114,000 to below $108,000, rapidly wiping out over $100 billion from the total market capitalization of nearly $3.9 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index also fell back to "neutral" or even "panic" territory.
The self-fulfilling "September curse" fueled the market. When most participants believe a September decline will occur, they tend to sell in advance, and this collective behavior itself creates significant selling pressure.
The cryptocurrency market is fraught with uncertainty and challenges, but it also holds potential opportunities. Investors should fully understand the associated risks, remain calm and rational, and adopt a robust strategy to navigate market fluctuations.