Today I received many private messages from fans asking whether it's a true bear market or just a normal correction, so let's discuss the upcoming market outlook: 1. Bitcoin and Ethereum have confirmed their entry into a bear market. Bitcoin's moving averages are showing a bearish divergence pattern, and it has effectively broken below the EMA512, a key bull-bear dividing line. 2. We are currently in the middle of a bear market, with Ethereum experiencing a larger drop. Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen significant volume during their recent declines, with the most recent trading day closing positive with substantial volume, suggesting a high probability of stabilizing and consolidating, or a slight rebound. 3. 74,000 is not the bottom for Bitcoin. Neither the time frame nor the closing price indicates a bottom. In summary, Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to stabilize and consolidate for a period, or experience a slight rebound, accumulating bearish momentum and awaiting new negative news before breaking down further. For long positions, only short-term longs are advisable; avoid holding positions for too long and focus on short-term trends. For short positions, consider a small short position on a rebound, and add to the position once the trend is confirmed (if you have a strong mentality, just aim for small profits). Once a bear market is established for Bitcoin, it won't easily reverse. It needs a sharp drop in volume to create an exchange of shares, followed by sideways consolidation to accumulate shares and momentum before a bull market can form.

This year, decentralized derivatives have a promising future, and the points system driven by protocols like Hyperliquid is becoming a standard feature of early-stage platform incentives. Historical experience has repeatedly proven that true value release often occurs before, not after, the "points → tokens" conversion. Currently, BTC is in a period of fluctuation, with an unclear trend, representing a relatively balanced risk-reward ratio. Instead of chasing assets that have already been priced in, it's better to participate early in sectors with higher certainty, continuously accumulate capital, and wait for catalysts to materialize. Opportunities often stem from uncertainty itself. By the time everyone understands it, the potential for profit has already been squeezed out. Just finished reading the Bugscoin Foundation's Q4 performance report, and the data is incredibly robust! Genuine buyback rewards—this kind of commitment is truly rare in today's market. @bugscoin_bgsc After a month of immersive experience on the Aden platform, I genuinely believe it will be the mainstream of Perp DEXs in the future: ✅ Zero constraints: No complicated barriers to entry, extremely fast response, and seamless order placement and execution. ✅ Multiple Options: Spot trading is now available, allowing you to manage all your positions in one place. ✅ Points System: The logic is clear – earn points for trading, and exchange points for platform tokens. Those who understand can try it out: #Bugscoin #BGSC #Aden #PerpDEX #Crypto2026 #DecentralizedExchange

Bitcoin has fallen nearly 10,000 points – a bear market signal or event-driven? Let's break down the current structure. I. Macroeconomic Level: Short-term negative factors haven't fully materialized. From a timing perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is in a week, and "keeping interest rates unchanged" is almost a consensus. Before expectations of improved liquidity emerge, the crypto market often weakens in advance. The current decline is more a reflection of macroeconomic expectations than a simple technical breakdown. II. Technical Structure: Rebound ≠ Reversal Currently, BTC is still in a downward channel, and the bearish structure remains intact. Short-term focus is on two key resistance levels: 9070-91700. If the price rebounds to these areas, it should be considered a pullback within the trend rather than a trend reversal, suitable for short-term short positions to capitalize on the pullback structure. III. Position Management Strategy • If you haven't previously established medium-term short positions, you can gradually build them near the resistance levels to avoid betting everything at once. • For positions already established around 98,000, consider taking partial profits within the 87,000-88,000 support range, and continue to trade the remaining positions to speculate on volatility before and after the interest rate meeting. IV. Logical Review: Not a Retrospective Explanation The expectation of "weakening before the meeting" didn't just materialize today. Working back in time: The interest rate meeting was on the 29th, and pricing began two weeks prior on the 14th, when the BTC price was around 98,000. This round of decline is essentially a process of macroeconomic expectations gradually materializing. V. What's Next? A technical rebound after a rapid short-term decline is normal, but before the macroeconomic situation and trend change: The rebound is more suitable for finding better shorting opportunities than for rushing to buy the dip.

Having been in the crypto world for a while, you realize there's absolutely no warmth here; the reality is brutally honest! It doesn't care about your passion or age; it can create an absurdly large gap between you and your peers in a short period. In your early twenties, some people are scrimping and saving for rent and utilities, barely scraping by; others have used crypto to make a down payment, flaunting luxury car keys, their lives seemingly on a winning streak. This difference has nothing to do with intelligence; the key is whether you've timed the market perfectly! Don't believe in the overnight riches myth of crypto; it offers ordinary people real opportunities for a dramatic turnaround! You don't need millions in capital; a few thousand or tens of thousands of USDT is enough. Find the right timing, and with discipline, execution, and patience, you can drastically change your life trajectory. But this market is ruthless in its elimination process, showing no mercy! Heavily betting, gambling on the direction, and acting emotionally—while seemingly reckless, actually exhaust your luck and opportunities, pushing yourself to the brink of ruin. Countless people lose their entire capital in a moment of impulsiveness, only to find themselves unable to participate in a major bull market, left with nothing but regret. The market doesn't reward reckless gamblers; it only favors those who remain at the table. The crypto world isn't lacking in bull markets, but rather in those who endure until the right moment and accumulate capital. When a bull market erupts, your presence and available funds directly determine your fate—either you're a spectator or you reap huge profits and achieve upward mobility. Those who remain calm and collected aren't lacking in ambition; they simply understand and respect the market! They adhere to strict discipline, control their positions, and avoid being swayed by short-term fluctuations, waiting for the opportunity to turn the tide. The crypto world is cruel in its rapid widening of the gap, but it's also fair: with clear-headed self-discipline, even starting from a low point, you can seize opportunities to rewrite your life. Less gambling, more patience, protect your capital, endure the volatility, and the next big winner could be you!

Tonight at 9:30 PM, the US will release its December CPI inflation data, with the market widely expecting 2.7%. This data is undoubtedly a bombshell for the cryptocurrency market, directly impacting the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy direction. Currently, a rate cut in January is virtually impossible, but there are two more policy meetings in March and April before Powell leaves office. If tonight's CPI data meets expectations, or even falls below 2.7%, it means inflationary pressures will ease further, and the hope for another Fed rate cut this year remains. If expectations for a rate cut intensify, market liquidity is expected to increase, potentially leading to an influx of funds into the cryptocurrency market and driving up prices. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations will not materialize, and the market may face selling pressure, causing prices to decline. Therefore, tonight's data is crucial, and everyone should pay close attention. If you found this analysis helpful, please follow, save, and like it. Let's discuss your thoughts on tonight's data and subsequent market trends in the comments section!

Have you all made any money these past few days with all the speculative trading? Today, let's talk about Bitcoin's future performance: is it a rebound or a reversal? Take Bitcoin for example; the market has already given quite a few hints. First, the rebound took too long to break through the first high. From the bottom to breaking through the December 10th high of 94570, it took almost a month. As I've said before, the longer it takes, the stronger the resistance above, which isn't typical of a strong market. Compare that to the April 2025 rally, which broke through the first high in just 5 days; this time it took almost 30 days—the difference is stark. Second, the breakout wasn't decisive at all. It just broke through around 94500, reaching a high of only 94700, and then within a few days it fell back down, even breaking below the key psychological level of 90000. A true trend reversal almost never unfolds like this. There was a pullback in April, but after the breakout, it never fell back below 90,000, indicating a completely different structure. Therefore, considering all factors, I'm more inclined to believe that the market will either consolidate sideways or rebound to around 98,000 before falling again; it doesn't seem like a weak reversal. As for the question many are asking about the reasons for the decline, there's no need to dwell on it. Financial markets have always followed this pattern: what goes up must come down. After so many times the gains in recent years, a correction is normal for any asset. Whether it's Bitcoin, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, A-shares, or gold and silver, if a stock has risen sharply, a significant drop is almost inevitable; there are no exceptions. The cryptocurrency market is full of uncertainty and challenges, but it also contains potential opportunities. Investors should fully understand the associated risks, remain calm and rational, and use a prudent strategy to cope with market changes when participating in cryptocurrency investment!

The altcoin market has been doing relatively well these past few days, but only for a few altcoins; the overall market remains lukewarm. This indirectly confirms my previous assessment: During the previous sharp declines, major players had already accumulated a significant amount of tokens, either passively or actively, to a certain extent, allowing them to pump the price. As for mainstream coins, due to their large market capitalization, retail investors have relatively stronger confidence in them. Therefore, both accumulation and price pumping take much longer. Although there have been several months of sideways consolidation, the lack of a price pump indicates further accumulation is needed. From this perspective, major players have two methods to further accumulate tokens: first, creating market pessimism to absorb selling pressure; second, using sharp price fluctuations to further undermine holders' confidence, thus clearing out weak hands. Sharp price fluctuations often involve declines. Based on past experience, if the second scenario occurs, it often signals the final drop in the market, especially a sharp drop after a period of consolidation, which is likely the final blow. Although the market is showing signs of a rebound, objectively speaking, I believe the probability of the second scenario is still quite high. Even if accumulation is complete, there will be significant volatility before the price surge to thoroughly shake out weak hands. Of course, if the market experiences a substantial rebound soon, that would be the true tail end of a bull market, and in that case, it's time to sell, for example, if Bitcoin were to reach 110,000 again. In general, after a sharp drop, an early price increase is not a good thing; sufficient accumulation is necessary for higher gains. As for altcoins, the fact that they are rising before mainstream assets have completed their accumulation indicates that the major players in altcoins have absorbed too many tokens during the previous declines. Therefore, once the market stabilizes, they are eager to pump the price, with the sole purpose of distributing their holdings. Of course, different major players distribute their holdings in different ways, and the price increases will also vary. However, we must understand one thing: unless mainstream assets have started their main upward trend, we should not buy altcoins. If you own an altcoin and it happens to be pumped by major players, you should sell it without hesitation.

The rules of the currency circle are simple: fast pace, strong competition, and ever-changing. Here, you don't get any preferential treatment, you can only rely on your own judgment and execution. As long as you can keep up, opportunities are always open to everyone, regardless of background or connections. But you must also know that behind this fairness, there is no emotion at all. Opportunities will not wait for you, and the market will not wait for you to become stronger. If you do not seize it, you will be surpassed by others. Only by constantly improving yourself and keeping up with the market can you gain a firm foothold. When the market fluctuates violently, those who can really make money are often those with plans. They will strictly abide by the rules, not be impulsive, and do things according to the system. Those who do not have a plan and rely solely on their feelings usually only make short-term luck. In the long run, it is difficult to achieve stable profits with this approach. The joining of new people is not a process of "giving away money", but the continuous updating and changes of the market. The joining of each new player means new opportunities and new challenges. If old players do not keep pace with the times, they are likely to be overtaken by newcomers. Therefore, don’t fantasize about getting rich overnight, stay calm, control risks, accurately grasp signals, and do every step well. You can get your own share of profits in this wave of ups and downs.

What to do if you encounter a rude police officer at the police station? Remember to save this; you might need it someday. Remember, never argue with them immediately. If they accuse you of obstructing official duties, you'll be in serious trouble. 1️⃣ Remember the officer's badge number. Every police officer has a unique identification number. 2️⃣ After leaving the police station, immediately call 1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣8️⃣9️⃣. This is the police system's dedicated complaint platform for handling police misconduct. How to make your complaint effective? When you call, don't rush in. You need to clearly state three things: First: Which police station did the incident occur at? Second: What is the officer's badge number? Third: After explaining the situation, clearly state that you demand this matter be handled seriously! Don't worry, guys. The 12389 hotline isn't just for show. It will definitely get things done. It's a direct regulatory channel for the public security system. As long as you file a complaint, the police station must explain the reason, and the police officer being complained about has to write a written explanation of the situation. Moreover, this matter will affect his annual performance evaluation and commendation.

True trading masters have all experienced losses, debt, and countless sleepless nights spent staring at the screen. Are you currently feeling suffocated by the market, even doubting your ability to continue? But I want to tell you, all of this is not meaningless. Those excruciating feelings are precisely the opportunities that propel you forward. I've been there too. I've experienced countless sleepless nights, eyes glued to the screen, watching my account slowly dwindle. But it was precisely in those moments of near-loss that I found my breakthrough. The essence of trading is not fighting the market, but fighting yourself. You'll find that what truly troubles you isn't market fluctuations, but your own inner fears and desires. Behind every loss lies an unnoticed expectation; behind every anxiety lies an unresolved inner conflict. I was once like you, giving it my all, yet seeing no hope. But when I began to let go of those overly intense expectations, learned to coexist peacefully with the market, and accepted losses, regrets, and pain, I began to understand: the victory in trading isn't about "winning" anything from the market, but about freeing oneself from the inner struggle. In the market, profits and losses are the norm, and pain and regret are inevitable. If you can accept these, you'll find that trading itself isn't so terrible. On the contrary, it's a mirror, reflecting your truest self. When you're no longer swayed by emotions or controlled by expectations, you can clearly see the market's pulse, understand its emotions, and no longer fall into blind pursuit. Persist, don't let the current difficulties defeat you. Those seemingly extreme pains will eventually become the keys to your success. Remember, only by experiencing the darkest hour can you usher in true light.