The cryptocurrency-to-equity (BTC/ETH) valuation system for Rivet is similar to Grayscale's trust system in the previous cycle: GBTC/ETHE. Coins can only be in, not out.
Initially, the positive premium was very high, exceeding 150% at one point. Many people engaged in arbitrage and even leveraged trading, such as with the Three Swords. However, this process took six months, so while the initial positive premium persisted, by the time the market was able to sell, it had narrowed or even exploded into a negative premium.
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum treasury companies generally have mNAVs exceeding 150%, also a positive premium. They sell shares and buy coins at this positive premium, promoting the idea that holding shares will increase the value of each BTC/ETH held. However, liquidity in the capital market will eventually reach its limit. The next step is to pledge ether to borrow money on AAVE and MakerDAO to increase holdings. Once this begins, it's a path to ruin. Tom Lee is still in a mood for joking, but it's clear that his ammunition reserves haven't been fully pledged yet, and leverage hasn't been increased. The desire for aggressive trading will likely intensify after the interest rate cut.
Once the mNAV of cryptocurrency-to-equity stocks breaks through 1 across the board, this story will end. That will likely mark the beginning of this cycle's bear market. So, there's still a great opportunity for investors to buy BTC and ETH at a negative premium. All they need is patience.
History's waltz doesn't repeat itself, but it always rhymes.