U.S. stocks have been bullish for decades, but will buying U.S. stocks definitely make money?
Take the last few years as an example. From 2022 to 2024, the S&P 500 index, which represents large companies, rose by 31%, but the Russell 2000 index, which represents small companies, fell by 6.8%; if we only look at this year, from 2025 to date, the S&P 500 index has risen by about 1.3%, but the Russell 2000 has fallen by about 5.2%.
If we take out giants such as Microsoft, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon, the rise of U.S. stocks is mainly contributed by them, and other companies have even fallen. There is limited money in the market, and it is concentrated in the hands of a few companies, and a few companies have grabbed most of the profits.
Looking at the crypto market from this perspective is similar. With the support of institutional funds, Bitcoin stands out, and the copycats have become a paradise for cutting leeks.
Bitcoin and gold are long-term hard assets. The altcoins are different from before. In the past, the number of altcoins was small, the market value was low, and they were fully circulated. Now, with most of the currencies being air, the number is increasing, the market value is extremely high, and they are constantly unlocking and cashing out. There will be no more altcoin seasons with general increases. There will only be a rebound after a big drop or structural local opportunities, such as the previously hyped AI and meme sectors. In the future, only those projects that really have products and ecosystems can have big opportunities if they intervene early.
Arthur Hayes, an industry leader, said that Bitcoin breaking through $110,000 and rising to the $150,000-200,000 range will trigger altcoin seasons, which are expected to appear in the summer of 2025 or the beginning of the third quarter, when funds will begin to rotate to various altcoins. He predicts that ETH's growth may exceed SOL in the next 18-24 months of the bull market, and Bitcoin will reach $1 million before the end of Trump's term (end of 2028), with a target price of about $250,000 by the end of this year.
For BTC, it may break through at any time, but the altcoin sector can only rebound with the surge of BTC, and it is difficult for a general altcoin season to appear. In addition to Bitcoin, the best strategy is to buy the bottom after the panic decline; when everyone is happy, run.
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