Bitcoin has fallen nearly 10,000 points – a bear market signal or event-driven? Let's break down the current structure. I. Macroeconomic Level: Short-term negative factors haven't fully materialized. From a timing perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is in a week, and "keeping interest rates unchanged" is almost a consensus. Before expectations of improved liquidity emerge, the crypto market often weakens in advance. The current decline is more a reflection of macroeconomic expectations than a simple technical breakdown. II. Technical Structure: Rebound ≠ Reversal Currently, BTC is still in a downward channel, and the bearish structure remains intact. Short-term focus is on two key resistance levels: 9070-91700. If the price rebounds to these areas, it should be considered a pullback within the trend rather than a trend reversal, suitable for short-term short positions to capitalize on the pullback structure. III. Position Management Strategy • If you haven't previously established medium-term short positions, you can gradually build them near the resistance levels to avoid betting everything at once. • For positions already established around 98,000, consider taking partial profits within the 87,000-88,000 support range, and continue to trade the remaining positions to speculate on volatility before and after the interest rate meeting. IV. Logical Review: Not a Retrospective Explanation The expectation of "weakening before the meeting" didn't just materialize today. Working back in time: The interest rate meeting was on the 29th, and pricing began two weeks prior on the 14th, when the BTC price was around 98,000. This round of decline is essentially a process of macroeconomic expectations gradually materializing. V. What's Next? A technical rebound after a rapid short-term decline is normal, but before the macroeconomic situation and trend change: The rebound is more suitable for finding better shorting opportunities than for rushing to buy the dip.