The altcoin market has been doing relatively well these past few days, but only for a few altcoins; the overall market remains lukewarm. This indirectly confirms my previous assessment:
During the previous sharp declines, major players had already accumulated a significant amount of tokens, either passively or actively, to a certain extent, allowing them to pump the price. As for mainstream coins, due to their large market capitalization, retail investors have relatively stronger confidence in them.
Therefore, both accumulation and price pumping take much longer. Although there have been several months of sideways consolidation, the lack of a price pump indicates further accumulation is needed.
From this perspective, major players have two methods to further accumulate tokens: first, creating market pessimism to absorb selling pressure; second, using sharp price fluctuations to further undermine holders' confidence, thus clearing out weak hands. Sharp price fluctuations often involve declines. Based on past experience, if the second scenario occurs, it often signals the final drop in the market, especially a sharp drop after a period of consolidation, which is likely the final blow.
Although the market is showing signs of a rebound, objectively speaking, I believe the probability of the second scenario is still quite high. Even if accumulation is complete, there will be significant volatility before the price surge to thoroughly shake out weak hands. Of course, if the market experiences a substantial rebound soon, that would be the true tail end of a bull market, and in that case, it's time to sell, for example, if Bitcoin were to reach 110,000 again. In general, after a sharp drop, an early price increase is not a good thing; sufficient accumulation is necessary for higher gains.
As for altcoins, the fact that they are rising before mainstream assets have completed their accumulation indicates that the major players in altcoins have absorbed too many tokens during the previous declines. Therefore, once the market stabilizes, they are eager to pump the price, with the sole purpose of distributing their holdings. Of course, different major players distribute their holdings in different ways, and the price increases will also vary. However, we must understand one thing: unless mainstream assets have started their main upward trend, we should not buy altcoins. If you own an altcoin and it happens to be pumped by major players, you should sell it without hesitation.